UPDATE: Heavy Rains & Damaging Winds Expected Today

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for Northern New York, and All of Vermont for sustained winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 55-75MPH range. The High Wind Warning is in effect from until 8PM Tonight.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and for Western Vermont for the potential of 1.5-3 inches of rain. The Flood Watch is in effect from until 12AM Thursday.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a High Wind Warning for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains for winds in the 20-40MPH range with gusts up to 70MPH. The Warning is in effect until 7PM tonight.

         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issed a Wind Advisory for the Northern Adirondack mountains, and for Western Franklin and Western Chittenden Counties for winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts up to 55MPH. The Advisory is in effect until 6PM this evening.

         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Watch for the Northern Adirondack mountains for the potential of 1.5-2.5 inches of rain with localized amounts near 3 inches. The Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a Wind Advisory for Bennington, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont for winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts in the 40-55MPH range. The Advisory is in effect until 6PM this evening.

         -The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a Flood Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for the potential of 2-3 inches of rain with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. The Watch is in effect through Thursday Morning.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure North of the Great lakes will push up against a strong high pressure system Northeast of Maine. Another wave of low pressure has formed over Pennsylvania and will ride up along a cold front extending from the low pressure system North of the Great lakes region. This will result in strong winds and heavy rain for our region Today and Tonight.

WIND
         An extremely tight pressure gradient has set up across our area due to low pressure squeezing up against strong high pressure Northeast of Maine. Models continue to indicate that winds at 5000ft will be ranging from 74-101MPH, and winds at 2500ft will be ranging from 46-83MPH. The full force of these winds shouldn't mix down to the surface due to the rain stabilizing the very surface, however enough Warm Air Advection will be ongoing on this southerly flow to mix down enough of these winds to call them damaging. I continue to be strongly concerned for the Western slopes of the green mountains as southeast winds funnel through the mountain passes and mountain gaps resulting in much stronger winds then surrounding areas. There is some questions as to how strong the winds will be in the St. Lawrence Valley, at this point I have held them at Warning level, but they may need to be dropped down to an Advisory later this morning. Conditions will continue to be monitored. Below is a wind forecast for different regions across the area, as winds wont be quite the same everywhere.

Western Slopes of the Green Mountains -Today sustained winds will be in the 30-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 65-75MPH. Isolated wind gusts as high as 80MPH will be possible in places such as Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huntington, and Rutland.

Southern Vermont/ Eastern Vermont/ Northeast Kingdom/ Northern Adirondack Mountains -Today sustained winds will be in the 25-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-65MPH.

Champlain Valley/ St. Lawrence Valley -Sustained winds today will be in the 20-35MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-60MPH.

RAINFALL
         Had to make some changes to the Flood Watch as rainfall wont be as heavy along the spine of the Green mountains and points east, as shadowing from the mountains will help reduce rain totals. So the flood watch from the spine of the Green mountains and east has been cancelled. Rainfall totals in the Flood watch area will range from 1.5 to 3 inches with isolated amounts reaching 3.5 inches across favored upslope regions of the Northern Adirondack mountains. Becareful out there today!

Heavy Rain & Damaging Winds Likely Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Night

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for Northern New York, and All of Vermont for sustained winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 55-75MPH range. The High Wind Warning is in effect from 11PM Tuesday until 8PM Wednesday.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain. The Flood Watch is in effect from 12AM Wednesday until 12AM Thursday.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -No alerts are currently in effect, but Flood Watches and Wind Alerts will likely be issued by the NWS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -No alerts are currently in effect, but Flood Watches and Wind Alerts will likely be issued by the NWS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure yet again forming over the Great lakes will push up against a strong high pressure system east of Maine. Another wave of low pressure will form over the mid-Atlantic region and ride up along a cold front extending from the low pressure system over the great lakes region. This will result in strong winds and heavy rain for our region starting Tuesday night, lasting into Wednesday night.

WIND
         An extremely tight pressure gradient will set up as low pressure squeezes up against strong high pressure east of Maine. Winds will start off from the south and then shift to the southeast Wednesday. Models indicate that winds at 5000ft will be ranging from 74-110MPH, and winds at 2500ft will be ranging from 46-83MPH. The full force of these winds shouldn't mix down to the surface due to the rain stabilizing the very surface, however enough Warm Air Advection will be ongoing on this southerly flow to mix down enough of these winds to call them damaging. When these winds shift to the southeast, I am strongly concerned for the Western slopes of the green mountains as southeast winds funnel through the mountain passes and mountain gaps resulting in much stronger winds then surrounding areas. Below is a wind forecast for different regions across the area, as winds wont be quite the same everywhere.

Western Slopes of the Green Mountains -Sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH will be likely Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 30-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 65-75MPH. Isolated wind gusts as high as 80MPH will be possible in places such as Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huntington, and Rutland.

Southern Vermont/ Eastern Vermont/ Northeast Kingdom/ Northern Adirondack Mountains -Sustained winds of 15-25MPH with gusts to 40MPH will be likely Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 30-40MPH range with gusts 60-65MPH possible.

Champlain Valley/ St. Lawrence Valley -Sustained winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 35MPH will be possible by Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 25-35MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-60MPH.

RAINFALL
         Plenty of moisture will be streaming north into the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday night. The heaviest rain will fall during the day Wednesday. The heaviest rain accumulations are expected to be from Southern Vermont to the Champlain Valley and points west, where rainfall totals will range from 2 inches across the Champlain Valley, to locally 4 inches across portions of the Northern Adirondack Mountains, and the St. Lawrence Valley. For the spine of the Green mountains, and Northeast into the Northeast Kingdom 1-2 inches of rain is likely, with the lowest amounts in the shadowed areas of the Northeast Kingdom, and the immediate western slopes of the Green mountains. There is the chance for a brief period of snow late Wednesday night as a cold front pushes across the region.

         Enough rain is likely to cause some minor to perhaps moderate flooding, especially across Northern New York. It is important to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the National Weather Service, or other local media outlets as well as Champlain Valley Weather.

Coastal Storm To Bring Wintry Precipitation & Strong Winds

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Northern New York, most of Vermont, and the Northern Champlain Valley. For a mix of wintry precipitation, with snow/ sleet accumulations up to 1 inch, and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued A Wind Advisory for the entire Champlain Valley, the Eastern Adirondack, and the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Sustained Northerly winds will be in the 15-30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH. Isolated strong wind gusts could occur along the Lake Champlain shoreline.

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NWS Burlington, VT
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Adirondack Mountains, and much of Vermont excluding the Champlain Valley. For a mix of wintry precipitation with Snow/ sleet accumulations up to 1 inch, and a minor ice accumulation.

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NWS Albany, NY
         -The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont. For a mix of wintry precipitation with snow/ sleet accumulations less then one inch, and Ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         A low pressure system developing well off the Coast will retrograde back west towards Cape Cod overnight into tomorrow morning. This will spread precipitation across our region late tonight into tomorrow. With cold air in place at the surface, precipitation will start of in the frozen form, eventually transitioning to all rain across the entire region.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION
         Precipitation in almost all locations should start in the frozen form, however most valley locations should switch over to all rain fairly early. The Frozen precipitation will hold on longer across the Northern Champlain Valley, and especially across the higher elevations, and mountain valleys across Vermont, and Northeastern New York. There is some concern though, with strong north winds, that cooler air could hold on longer then expected, resulting in more frozen precipitation for the entire area, including the entire Champlain Valley. At this point though, I will leave the Central, and Southern portions of the Champlain Valley out of the Winter Weather Advisory, and monitor conditions closely.

WIND
         With a tight pressure gradient setting up, and winds being from the North, the Champlain Valley and areas just to the east, and west of the Valley will experience some strong winds. Right now 925mb winds are expected to be 35-55 knots over the Champlain Valley, and adjacent areas. Winds should mix down the most right over Lake Champlain with wind gusts on the open lake up to 60MPH possible. Inland across the Advisory area though winds will be slightly less with sustained winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH. Along the Lakeshore winds could be slightly higher. Areas not in a Wind Advisory will see winds in the 10-25MPH range with gusts 30-40MPH.

RAINFALL
         With recent moderate to heavy rainfall, and very saturated ground, it wouldn't take much additional rain to cause some flooding. At this point though liquid equivalent/ rainfall totals should range from a half inch in downslope areas of the Northeast Kingdom, to around 1 inch or slightly higher in the Champlain Valley due to favorable valley convergence with a strong Northerly flow. At this time only very minor flooding is possible, and not enough to warrant a flood watch. Should things change, then a Flood Watch may be needed. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.

UPDATE: Flooding Rains & Strong Winds Into The Overnight

Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT continues the Flood Watch for all of Vermont and Northern New York for the potential of 3-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts by early Friday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY continues the Flood Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for 2-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible by early Friday morning. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the potential of damaging wind gusts up to 60MPH, with localized gusts in excess of 60MPH.

         Champlain Valley Weather continues a Wind Advisory for All of Vermont, and portions of Northeastern New York, for sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH. Winds will increase later this evening, and tapper off by Friday mid-morning. Depending on the overall strength and track of the system, winds could potential be stronger and a High Wind Warning may be needed with short notice. A Flood Watch also continues for all of Northern New York, and Vermont for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain with isolated amounts exceeding 4 inches. Stay tuned for further updates.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Just an update, everything appears to be on track. Still concerned with rainfall totals, some models are indicating 1-3 inches some 2-4 inches, and some 3-5+ inches. At this point I will stick with the 2-4. The best chance at seeing in excess of 4 inches of rain will be across the Adirondacks of Northern New York, and across Southern, and portions of Eastern Vermont. Already as little as a quarter inch to as much as 2 inches of rain has fallen across the area, with the lowest amounts in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valley's, and the highest amounts across Southeastern Vermont. For the rest of today the heaviest rain should be over Northern New York, and the heavy rain threat will shift back into Vermont into this evening and overnight.

         As far as winds go, the surface has been extremely stable, and winds have been calm almost the entire day. Winds are going to highly dependent on the ultimate track of the low pressure center, and whether or not we can get the warm front to move over our area. If the warm front moves overhead, then the surface will become more unstable allowing for stronger winds. Right now, we will have to wait and see what happens, but I am fairly confident that we will see some stronger wind gusts, especially in the higher elevations. A High Wind Warning still may be needed upon short notice overnight, especially for areas in Southern Vermont. Please stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.

Potential Flooding Rainfall & Strong Winds For Thursday and Thursday Night

Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Flood Watch for all of Vermont and Northern New York for the potential of 3-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts by early Friday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Flood Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for 2-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible by early Friday morning. A High Wind Watch is also in effect for the potential of strong to damaging wind gusts in excess of 60MPH.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Wind Advisory for All of Vermont, and portions of Northeastern New York, for sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH. Isolated gusts to 55MPH are possible in areas most vulnerable to south winds in the higher elevations. Winds will increase Thursday afternoon, and tapper off by Friday morning. Depending on the overall strength and track of the system, winds could potential be stronger and a High Wind Warning may be needed with short notice. A Flood Watch is also in effect for all of Northern New York, and Vermont for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain with isolated amounts exceeding 4 inches in favored upslope regions in the extreme eastern Adirondacks, and southern portions of Vermont. This amounts of rain, will likely lead to minor to moderate flooding. If widespread 4"+ amounts occur, then significant flooding may occur. Rain will be heaviest during Thursday afternoon, into Thursday night. Stay tuned for further updates.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A significant storm system is set to impact the area, including the remnants of former Tropical Storm Nicole. A series of low pressure waves will ride up along a stalled front across our region Early Thursday morning through Thursday night. Due to its origins being from the tropics, a tropical airmass will be overhead and result in significant rainfall. At this time I am forecasting 2-4 inches with as little as 2 inches in the Champlain Valley to as much as 4 or more inches across upslope region of the Adirondacks, and across portions of Southern Vermont. Still a bit concerned that numerous models are indicated the potential for a widespread rainfall in excess of 4 inches across portions of the area, but I am hoping it is just convective feedback on the models, which does happen often. I am concerned though, because even 3 or 4 inches of rain will likely result in widespread minor to possibly moderate flooding. This will have to be watched very closely.

         The next concern with this system is wind. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten up significantly, especially the further south you go. Generally a South wind spells trouble for the Champlain Valley, but due to the track of the low pressure centers being fairly close/ almost overhead of the Champlain Valley, they may be relieved of some very strong winds. Not to mention that the lower levels may end up being a bit to stable due to the rain, for the winds to mix down from further up in the atmosphere. At this point though, I feel a Wind advisory is needed. If the storm tracks are slightly further to the west, and/ or near the surface is a bit more unstable, then stronger winds could occur. This will be closely monitored. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation.

Flood Threat High Across Central Vermont

FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2:30PM THIS AFTERNOON
(Click HERE For Details)

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM TONIGHT
(Click HERE For Details)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, as well as a Flood Warning for portions of the area. In all today 1-3 inches of rain is possible, across the watch area. Across the warning area, spotter reports and radar indicates that 1 to 1.5 inches of rain has already fallen as of 10:35AM. Additional rain of 1 to 2 inches is possible across the warning area.

     Current radar trends indicate that rain will continue for another 3-6 hours. Rain will be heavy at times, especially across Central, and Southern Vermont. Radar shows that precipitation has become more scattered since earlier this morning, across Central, and Southern Vermont. Right now the heaviest rain is falling in a band that stretches from Essex County New York, North and east into Orleans County Vermont. Doppler radar is estimating that rainfall rates are around a quarter inch per hour, with isolated higher rates. The heavier rain is expected to shift into Central, and Southern Vermont as time progresses. Stay tuned for further updates.

UPDATE: Flash Flooding

FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9:30PM (Click HERE For Details)

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:00AM (Click HERE For Details)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Heavy rain has begun to cause some flooding concerns, especially across Northeastern New York. Doppler Radar indicates that 2-3.5 inches of rain has fallen across Rouses Point, back west to Champlain Village with rainfall rates of nearly 3 inches per hour. Radar indicates that the storms have begun to weaken, but are continuing to train over Rouses point. Additional rainfall of up to an inch is possible. Click the "Flood Advisory" link in red above for further details. Stay tuned for further updates.

     The Flash Flood threat looks to continue overnight, mainly for areas across Central, and Southern Vermont. Currently a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Northwestern Rutland County Vermont, where 3-4 inches of rain has fallen, and additional amounts of 1-2 inches is possible overnight. Currently PWAT values are running pretty close to what I had predicted. PWAT values are in the 1.6 to 2.1 range, with the highest values to the south, and the lower values to the north. Radar shows some breaks across central New York, but with some more precipitation to the west, so continued rain overnight looks like a good bet, some of which could be locally heavy. Stay tuned for any further updates.

UPDATE: Severe Weather/ Flash Flood Potential

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Just a quick update to the current conditions, severe thunderstorm potential, and Flash Flooding potential.

     Currently temps have risen into the low to mid 80's with some upper 80's being reported such as Morrisville at 87F, Swanton Village at 87F, and Highgate at 86F. Dewpoints are in the upper 60's with isolated 70+ degree reading pushing up from the south, such as Glens Falls with a dewpoint of 71F, and 72F at Saratoga Springs, and Albany, New York. These higher dewpoints will continue to push north into our region. So my previous forecast of dewpoints around 70 still looks good. My temperature forecast of 82-87F will be increased to 84-89F and isolated areas good hit 90F, especially in the Champlain Valley.

     With the above mentioned, the severe weather aspect also needs to be tweaked. The atmosphere has destabilized significantly more then I had expected. CAPE values are now in the 1500-2000 j/kg range with isolated areas in the 2100-2300 j/kg range. Lifted Index's are in the -4 to -6 range with isolated areas in the -7 range. With mainly sunny skies expected for at least a couple more hours, it appears that CAPE values will max out in the 2000-2500 j/kg range, with isolated areas seeing 3000 j/kg possible. Lifted index's should range from -5 to -7 with isolated areas getting to -8 or -9. These parameters show the atmosphere is volatile right now, and once convection starts to form, it will become widespread. Any storms that become severe will have the potential to produce damaging winds, and large hail. An isolated tornado is possible, especially across Southern areas. My severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect.

     The Flash flood threat continues to be the greatest concern at this point. PWAT values are currently in the 1.4 to 1.6 range and will increase into the 1.7 to 2.0 range. These values are very high, meaning the potential for excessive rainfall is high. The upper level winds are also favorable for training/ back building of storms, which means a couple of inches of rain could fall in isolated areas, within just an hours time. Widespread rainfall totals should range from .75" to 1.5" inches, with very isolated areas seeing as much as 4 - 6 inches of rain. The isolated heaviest amounts are more likely across Southern Vermont where PWAT values may be locally greater then 2.0. My flash flood watch will remain in effect.

     Once again the National Weather Service has not issued any official alerts across our area. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and Flash Flood Watch across Extreme Southern Vermont. However there is no official National Weather Service alerts in effect for our area. Stay tuned for further updates!

Severe Storms/ Flash Flooding Possible Today

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Today is looking like an active day for portions of New England, and New York. An approaching front from the west, and a very moist atmosphere, along with a low pressure system riding up along the front, may prove to be a problem across the region today and tonight.

     Currently across our region temperatures are in the mid to upper 70's already. Infact overnight lows, especially across the Champlain Valley, were very warm. Overnight lows generally ranged from 65-70F. With a few warmer spots out there such as Burlington, Highgate, and Swanton Village where the overnight low was 72F degrees. Current dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60's. This is resulting in already humid conditions across the area this morning. Things will only get worse as high temps will range from 82-87F, and dewpoints will climb to near 70F. Today will be a warm, and humid day.

     Since we have been talking about temperatures lets talk quickly about the potential for severe weather today. As stated temps are already in the mid to upper 70's with nearly full sunshine across the area. This with high dewpoints have resulted in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values already in the 400-800 j/kg across the region, with the highest values across the Champlain Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley, and Lifted index's are already in the 0 to -2 range. Skies are expected to remain sunny for at least a couple more hours across much of the region, before high clouds build in, and thicken. CAPE values should max out in the 1200 to 1600 j/kg range, and lifted index's should range from -3 to -6. With such good destabilization it wont take much for any storms that develop to become strong to occasionally severe. With this all in mind I have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch already this morning. I am confident that at least a few severe thunderstorms will form this afternoon. The primary severe threat will be strong to damaging winds, and isolated large hail. Across extreme southern Vermont, an isolated tornado or two is possible. With all storms this afternoon, and evening very heavy rainfall is possible. Discussion on heavy rainfall potential is next.

     With warm temperatures, and significant destabilization for the potential of severe storms, the most significant threat today and tonight will be the potential for heavy rain, with training/ back building thunderstorms. An approaching front, from the west is allowing a strong southerly flow to develop across the Eastern United States. This is helping transport warm sub-tropical moisture into our region. As stated above dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60's and will likely peak out to around 70 this afternoon. Precipitable Water (PWAT) Values are currently about 1.4 inches across the entire area. PWAT values are expected to rise into the 1.6 - 2.0 range later this afternoon. This is very moist, and any storms that develop in this atmosphere will have torrential downpours, and with the slow moving front and weak storm speeds, training/ back building of storms wont take much to occur, and with slow moving/ training/ back building storms, it wont take much to drop a couple inches within one hour. With that in mind, I have also issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area. At this point it appears the heaviest rain will fall across Central, Eastern, and especially Southern Vermont. The GFS and ECMWF models are in nearly perfect agreement on this situation. One model is throwing a fly in the ointment, and that's the NAM model, although currently an outlier, it has proven before in these heavy rain situations that it can be right, even when its being an "outlier". The NAM is indicating the heavy rain axis will be across Eastern New York, and Western Vermont, while all other models are indicating the heaviest rain across Eastern, Central, and Southern Vermont. Only time will tell, either way stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation.

     There are no official alerts from the National Weather Service for our area at this time, but there has been some talk of possibly issuing a Flash Flood Watch later this morning or early this afternoon. Stay tuned!

Severe Thunderstorms End For Tonight

National Weather Service, Burlington, VT.

     The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont continues the Flash Flood Watch Until 5AM, for Western Vermont, and much of Northern New York. A Flood Advisory continues for Essex County in New York until 12:30AM, and a Flood Advisory continues for Clinton County in New York until 2:30AM. For more information on these alerts, please go to the above National Weather Service link, and click on the map in the vicinity of where you live.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Thunderstorms are beginning to diminish, and the threat for them to be Severe has diminished. With the sun setting, daytime heating has ended too, and with the showers, and thunderstorms that have moved over the region, the atmosphere is stabilizing rapidly.

     Rain and non-severe thunderstorms will continue until midnight, and then rain showers will continue for a few more hours before all but ending. The most additional rain should fall in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and New York, and the nearby Eastern Slopes of the Adirondack mountains, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Additional rainfall totals should range from a half to one and a half inches. The flash flood threat will persist for several more hours, but it should not be as high a threat as earlier. We may be doing this all over again tomorrow, so stay tuned for further updates!

Severe Thunderstorms Pushing North

     The National Weather Service in Burlington, has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Franklin, Chittenden, Grandisle, Washington, Lamoille, and Addison Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, and Essex Counties in New York until 7:30PM. Doppler radar is indicated a line of severe thunderstorms moving North, capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60MPH. This same line of thunderstorms has had a history of producing damaging winds in excess of 80MPH across Northern Rutland, and Southern Addison Counties in Vermont. CLICK ON THE MAP ABOVE FOR MORE ALERT DETAILS!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #533 In Effect For Parts Of Our Region

Overview: The National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma, has issued Severe Thunderstorm watch #533 for parts of our region. Hail to 2 inches in diameter, and thunderstorm wind gust to 70MPH are possible in the strongest of storms. (Click on either map above for alert details)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Today looks to be rather interesting. Significant sunshine was able to break through the clouds this morning, and destabilize the atmosphere significantly from the Champlain Valley, and points west. Currently the most unstable atmosphere is over the Champlain Valley itself, where sun has been prevalent much of the day. Across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, MUCAPE values range from 900 j/kg to 1500 j/kg, with SBCAPE values ranging from 800 j/kg to 1000 j/kg, and LI's in the -1 to -4 range. All together what this is indicating is that the atmosphere is unstable, and the likelihood for thunderstorms is fairly high, with severe thunderstorms possible.

     The primary severe threat will be large hail, due to freezing heights being slightly lower then normal due to the upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes region. Secondary threat will be damaging winds, and the final threat being the possibility of a very brief tornado, due to some rotation.

     Aside from the severe thunderstorm aspect, overall the main threat today, will be for isolated Flash Flooding. With Precipitable water values in the 1.0 - 1.5 range today, and the possibility of training/ backing thunderstorms, it wont take much to get storms to drop 1-2 inches in a short period of time. Some isolated storms could even produce up to 3 inches! The greatest threat for any Flash Flooding would be across the higher terrain of Clinton, and Essex Counties in New York, and the Western slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont, especially where areas in Vermont received 1-2 inches of rain yesterday, leading to lowering Flash Flood Values. With this in mind, I have extended the Flash Flood Watch on my "Suggested Alerts" map, and it now covers the entire Champlain Valley coverage area. The reason I expanded it west, is because that's where storms should be most numerous, however any slow moving storms that can push into the Western Slopes, and Eastern Vermont will have the potential to produce isolated Flash Flooding.

     Aside from the Severe weather details, recently Champlain Valley Weather has had a team put together to do some Storm Chasing. Currently we do not have computer access in the Chase Vehicles so we have our own Storm Tracker in which we stay in frequent contact with, so we are sent to the hot spots. With all this in mind we urge you to view the site frequently, as days when we are out chasing we will send texts direct to the Champlain Valley Weather site so you know exactly whats going on out on the roads. Today we plan on Chasing from 3-8PM if storms being to develop, so stay tuned to the site for Chase posts, with live from the scene damage or flooding photos!

Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible For Tuesday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     As of 11:55PM Doppler Radar has calmed down quite a bit from earlier, when we had all that rain. All that's left on radar right now are some very widely scattered showers. Not only did small streams, brooks, and small rivers rise to near or above bankfull, but a few of the large stem rivers (Missisquoi, Lamoille, and Passumpsic) had some significant within bank rises of 3-5 feet. Below is a list of rainfall totals for the rain we received today.

(Note: Some of these readings are from personal automated rain gauges, so some of the data may be slightly inaccurate. I will have a more detailed list once the CoCoRaHS reports come in tomorrow morning.)

Rainfall Totals:
North Troy-(Missisquoi River Rain Gauge): 2.55"
West Glover: 2.12"
East Berkshire: (Missisquoi River Rain Gauge): 1.66"
Elmore: 1.59"
Hyde Park: 1.44"
Worcester: 1.28"
Island Pond: 1.21"
St. Albans: 0.99"
Marshfield: 0.89"
Swanton Village: 0.85"
South Burlington: 0.69"
Plattsburgh: 0.45"
Beekmantown: 0.41"

     Now we will move on to tomorrow. An upper level low near the Great Lakes region will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms as the cold air aloft, will fight with the warmer surface air, and cause some instability. At this point it is still not certain how unstable the atmosphere will become. If we can get some breaks of sun tomorrow, for any extended period of time, then the atmosphere would be able to become more unstable then currently anticipated. Never-the-less breaks or no breaks of sun, showers, and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, with some isolated severe storms possible in the mid afternoon to early evening time frame.

     Of most concern will be the potential for some localized flash flooding, especially across Central and Northern Vermont where widespread .75 to 1.5 inch, and isolated 2.0 - 2.5 inch rainfall totals occurred today. Flash Flood Guidance indicates that 1hr/3hr/6hr Flash flood values range from 1-3 inches across Northern and Central Vermont. With precipitable water values (PWATS) expected to be in the 1.2 - 1.6 inch range tomorrow, it wont take much to get a strong thunderstorm to drop that much rain within the 1hr/3hr/6hr time frame. With this in mind, on my suggested alerts map, I have issued a Flash Flood Watch for Chittenden, Franklin, Lamoille, and Washington Counties in Vermont. As of right now, there are no official alerts in effect from the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont. Please stay tuned for any further updates!!

Heavy Rains May Cause Flash Flooding In Northern New York

     Although Champlain Valley Weather does not regularly cover any other then the Champlain Valley of New York, I have decided to do a special post, on a potentialy hazardous situation in St. Lawerence County New York, that's ongoing right now.

     As of 6:10PM National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm with torrential rain, nearly stationary over parts of North-Central St. Lawrence County in Northern New York. National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that rainfall rates have reached nearly 3 inches per hour just northeast of Potsdam, and just east of Norwood. Doppler radar estimates that 2.5 to 4.0 Inches of rain has fallen. This storm is slowly drifting to the northeast, but moderate to heavy rain continues to persist over the same areas. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Advisory for this area, but a Flash Flood Warning may be needed if rain persists much longer. Of additional concern is additional thunderstorms developing in the same general area, along with a very slow moving swatch of moderate to heavy rain approaching from the west. This large area of rain will likely begin to effect this area within the next couple of hours. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2 inches with locally up to 3 inches can be expected by later tonight. This area will be watched very closely for the potential of Flash Flooding. If you live along Plum Brook or Tucker Brook or their tributaries it is strongly recommended to keep a very close eye on the level of the water. If you notice very rapidly rising water it is strongly recommended to move to higher ground.

     Also to note, heavy rain, and thunderstorms are developing and remaining nearly stationary in other portions of St. Lawrence County, and nearby Franklin County. Other locations that will need to be monitored for potential flooding problems are Slab City, Madrid, Madrid Springs, Waddington, and other towns near Route 345 from Potsdam, to Waddington. Also areas near Gile, and Spring Cove, and areas just west of those towns in the Adirondack Park Preserve.

   Stay tuned for any further updates!

Moderate To Heavy Rain May Cause Flooding Concerns Into Friday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Currently rain is falling light to moderately across the entire area. With just patchy drizzle along the immediate international border of Vermont. A storm system as of 24 hours ago was supposed to bring as much as 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts to Northern New York, and Vermont, especially along the international border. But things are not occurring quite as expected. The stalled out frontal boundary, had stalled out a bit further to the south then models indicated 24 hours ago. Also not as much moisture has made it into the area. Although its not mentioned I feel the reason for this, is a sub-tropical low pressure system off the coast of the Carolina's which I feel is stealing some moisture.

     Also looking at current radar trends it appears the frontal boundary is currently drifting a bit farther south. This is resulting in a very sharp precipitation cut off to drift south of the international border in Vermont. As of 12:00AM this has resulted in rain changing to drizzle or coming to an end along a line from North Alburgh, to Swanton, to Enosburgh, to Orleans, and to Island Pond. Radar trends continue to show this line slowly drifting south. At this point I am not quite sure how far south this will push. It may be able to push as far south as a line extending from Chazy, New York to South Hero, to Milton, to Johnson, to West Burke Vermont. This area of rain should push back North by Thursday Afternoon. At this point though it appears the heaviest rain will fall across Eastern Essex County, New York, and Washington, and Addison Counties in Vermont, by Friday afternoon. The above mentioned counties are the most likely to see isolated amounts to just over 3 inches. (Alert Maps Below.)