Heavy Rain & Damaging Winds Likely Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Night

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for Northern New York, and All of Vermont for sustained winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 55-75MPH range. The High Wind Warning is in effect from 11PM Tuesday until 8PM Wednesday.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain. The Flood Watch is in effect from 12AM Wednesday until 12AM Thursday.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -No alerts are currently in effect, but Flood Watches and Wind Alerts will likely be issued by the NWS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -No alerts are currently in effect, but Flood Watches and Wind Alerts will likely be issued by the NWS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure yet again forming over the Great lakes will push up against a strong high pressure system east of Maine. Another wave of low pressure will form over the mid-Atlantic region and ride up along a cold front extending from the low pressure system over the great lakes region. This will result in strong winds and heavy rain for our region starting Tuesday night, lasting into Wednesday night.

WIND
         An extremely tight pressure gradient will set up as low pressure squeezes up against strong high pressure east of Maine. Winds will start off from the south and then shift to the southeast Wednesday. Models indicate that winds at 5000ft will be ranging from 74-110MPH, and winds at 2500ft will be ranging from 46-83MPH. The full force of these winds shouldn't mix down to the surface due to the rain stabilizing the very surface, however enough Warm Air Advection will be ongoing on this southerly flow to mix down enough of these winds to call them damaging. When these winds shift to the southeast, I am strongly concerned for the Western slopes of the green mountains as southeast winds funnel through the mountain passes and mountain gaps resulting in much stronger winds then surrounding areas. Below is a wind forecast for different regions across the area, as winds wont be quite the same everywhere.

Western Slopes of the Green Mountains -Sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH will be likely Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 30-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 65-75MPH. Isolated wind gusts as high as 80MPH will be possible in places such as Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huntington, and Rutland.

Southern Vermont/ Eastern Vermont/ Northeast Kingdom/ Northern Adirondack Mountains -Sustained winds of 15-25MPH with gusts to 40MPH will be likely Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 30-40MPH range with gusts 60-65MPH possible.

Champlain Valley/ St. Lawrence Valley -Sustained winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 35MPH will be possible by Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 25-35MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-60MPH.

RAINFALL
         Plenty of moisture will be streaming north into the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday night. The heaviest rain will fall during the day Wednesday. The heaviest rain accumulations are expected to be from Southern Vermont to the Champlain Valley and points west, where rainfall totals will range from 2 inches across the Champlain Valley, to locally 4 inches across portions of the Northern Adirondack Mountains, and the St. Lawrence Valley. For the spine of the Green mountains, and Northeast into the Northeast Kingdom 1-2 inches of rain is likely, with the lowest amounts in the shadowed areas of the Northeast Kingdom, and the immediate western slopes of the Green mountains. There is the chance for a brief period of snow late Wednesday night as a cold front pushes across the region.

         Enough rain is likely to cause some minor to perhaps moderate flooding, especially across Northern New York. It is important to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the National Weather Service, or other local media outlets as well as Champlain Valley Weather.

Potential Flooding Rainfall & Strong Winds For Thursday and Thursday Night

Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Flood Watch for all of Vermont and Northern New York for the potential of 3-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts by early Friday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Flood Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for 2-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible by early Friday morning. A High Wind Watch is also in effect for the potential of strong to damaging wind gusts in excess of 60MPH.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Wind Advisory for All of Vermont, and portions of Northeastern New York, for sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH. Isolated gusts to 55MPH are possible in areas most vulnerable to south winds in the higher elevations. Winds will increase Thursday afternoon, and tapper off by Friday morning. Depending on the overall strength and track of the system, winds could potential be stronger and a High Wind Warning may be needed with short notice. A Flood Watch is also in effect for all of Northern New York, and Vermont for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain with isolated amounts exceeding 4 inches in favored upslope regions in the extreme eastern Adirondacks, and southern portions of Vermont. This amounts of rain, will likely lead to minor to moderate flooding. If widespread 4"+ amounts occur, then significant flooding may occur. Rain will be heaviest during Thursday afternoon, into Thursday night. Stay tuned for further updates.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A significant storm system is set to impact the area, including the remnants of former Tropical Storm Nicole. A series of low pressure waves will ride up along a stalled front across our region Early Thursday morning through Thursday night. Due to its origins being from the tropics, a tropical airmass will be overhead and result in significant rainfall. At this time I am forecasting 2-4 inches with as little as 2 inches in the Champlain Valley to as much as 4 or more inches across upslope region of the Adirondacks, and across portions of Southern Vermont. Still a bit concerned that numerous models are indicated the potential for a widespread rainfall in excess of 4 inches across portions of the area, but I am hoping it is just convective feedback on the models, which does happen often. I am concerned though, because even 3 or 4 inches of rain will likely result in widespread minor to possibly moderate flooding. This will have to be watched very closely.

         The next concern with this system is wind. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten up significantly, especially the further south you go. Generally a South wind spells trouble for the Champlain Valley, but due to the track of the low pressure centers being fairly close/ almost overhead of the Champlain Valley, they may be relieved of some very strong winds. Not to mention that the lower levels may end up being a bit to stable due to the rain, for the winds to mix down from further up in the atmosphere. At this point though, I feel a Wind advisory is needed. If the storm tracks are slightly further to the west, and/ or near the surface is a bit more unstable, then stronger winds could occur. This will be closely monitored. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation.

Lake Effect Snow For Northern New York - Ice Jam Flooding Continues In Vermont

Current Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Advisory for Franklin County for Ice Jams, and Flooding along the Missisquoi River, and its Tributaries from West Swanton to Berkshire. Route 78 & 105 are closed in sections between Berkshire and East Highgate. Also the Pike river in Berkshire is causing some minor Flooding.

         The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Advisory for Chittenden County for an Ice Jam on the Winooski River. The Ice jam has resulted in flooding on North Williston Rd. At this time North Williston Rd is closed and will remain closed for a while.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for the Missisquoi River in Franklin County, between Berkshire and Highgate. Numerous ice jams have resulted in the partial closure of Route 105 in spots between Berkshire, and Sheldon, and a full closure of Route 78 in East Highgate. Ice jams will likely remain in place for much of the day, especially the one in Highgate. Routes 78 & 105 will continue to be effected much of the day.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for the Winooski River in Chittenden County. Ice jams have been reported between Westford, and Williston. These Ice jams have resulted in Water overflowing onto North Williston Rd. These ice jams will likely continue to effect areas between Westford and Williston for much of the day.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for the Northern Half of Vermont, and Clinton County in Northeastern New York for the potential of Ice Jam Flooding. The Counties under the watch have the highest threat of ice jam flooding. Already numerous ice jams have been reported on area waterways, most at this time are not producing any flooding, but could with short notice. Additional ice jams are likely today as water levels change.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for portions of Southeastern St. Lawrence County. Period of Lake effect snow will result in snow accumulations of 3-6 inches by late tonight. Snow will be locally heavy, and visibilities will be reduced to less then a half mile in the heaviest snow.


Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Things continue to be busy across the area today. Significant ice jams have developed on many rivers, and streams. Many of them are not producing flooding at this time, but could produce flooding later today. Thus I have continued the Flood Watch for areas most likely to witness any ice jam flooding. The worst of the current ice jam flooding is across Franklin and Chittenden counties in Northwestern Vermont. Route 78 & 105 are closed in spots from Berkshire to East Highgate. There is some concern that ice jam flooding may occur further down stream towards West Swanton later this afternoon, as another ice jam has been reported along that stretch of the Missisquoi River. Luckily though now additional significant rain will occur. Only light snow/ rain showers will occur today across much of the region.

         In portions of Northern New York though, its a different story. Across southern portions of St. Lawrence county significant accumulations of lake effect snow are likely to occur. Thus I have issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for 3-6 inches of snow. The heaviest accumulations will likely occur from Star Lake to Wanakena to Cranberry Lake.

         Stay tuned for any further updates.

Ice Jam Flooding Occuring On The Missisquoi & Winooski Rivers

Current Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Advisory for Chittenden County for an Ice Jam on the Winooski River. The Ice jam has resulted in flooding on Williston Rd. At this time Williston Rd is closed and will remain closed for a while.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for the Missisquoi River in Franklin County, between Berkshire and Highgate. Numerous ice jams have resulted in the partial closer of Route 105 in spots between Berkshire, and Sheldon, and a full closer of Route 78 in East Highgate. Ice jams will likely remain in place for much of the day, especially the one in Highgate. Routes 78 & 105 will continue to be effected much of the day.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for the Winooski River in Chittenden County. Ice jams have been reported between Williston, and Essex. These Ice jams have resulted in Water overflowing onto Williston Rd. These ice jams will likely continue to effect areas between Essex and Williston for much of the day.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for the Northern Half of Vermont, and Clinton County in Northeastern New York for the potential of Ice Jam Flooding. The Counties under the watch have the highest threat of ice jam flooding. Already numerous ice jams have been reported on area waterways, most at this time are not producing any flooding, but could with short notice. Additional ice jams are likely today as water levels change.

         Stay tuned for further updates on this situation.

UPDATE 6: Flooding Continues Across The Region

Current Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Warning for the East Branch of the Ausable River, in Clinton County New York due to an icejam. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a Flood Warning for the Walloomsac River, and the Batten Kill in Bennington County due to rapid rises on these two rivers. The Flood Watch remains in effect and now extends until 7AM Tuesday morning.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for the East Branch of the Ausable River in Clinton County New York. A Flood Warning for the Walloomsac River, and the Batten Kill in Bennington County. A Flood Warning for the Otter Creek in Rutland County, and A Flood Advisory for Grandisle, Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Windsor, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and Essex County in Northern New York due to significant nuisance flooding.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         See the National Weather Service's website Burlington Area Office or if in Bennington, and Windham Counties Albany Area Office for details on the flood warnings for the Walloomsac River, Batten Kill, and East Branch of the Ausable River.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for the Otter Creek at Center Rutland. Currently the Otter Creek at Center Rutland is at a stage of 7.02 feet. Flood Stage is 8.0 Feet. The Otter Creek will continue to rise steadily and crest at 9.0 feet by 7AM Tuesday Morning.

         Champlain Valley Weather continues the Flood Advisory for the above mentioned counties due to significant rainfall. This rainfall combined with snowmelt, has resulted in significant rises on area waterways. Many small creeks and streams are out of their banks, with significant field flooding. For the most part flooding should remain minor. If traveling use extreme caution, and do not travel over a flooded road.

         While the rain and wind has settled down, the water continues to rise, although numerous waterways have crested or are getting ready to crest within the next several hour. Some of the large stem river will crest later tomorrow morning. There has been signs of ice jams on several of the large stem rivers such as the Missisquoi, Lamoille, and Winooski Rivers. Currently these rivers are remaining below flood. The only river right now that has icejam flooding of any sort is the East Branch of the Ausable River.

         Conditions will continue to be monitored for further icejam flooding. Stay tuned to Champlain Valley Weather and your local weather, and media outlets for further updates. This should be one of the final updates on this storm system.

UPDATE 5: Flooding Occuring Across The Region From Heavy Rains

Current Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Warning for Addison, Orange, Rutland, Washington, and Windsor Counties in Vermont, and Essex County in New York due to heavy rains. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a Flash Flood Warning until 7:15PM for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, for flash flooding due to significant rainfall, and rapid runoff. A Flood Warning is also in effect for the Walloomsac River in Bennington, until 7AM Tuesday. The Flash Flood Watch has been canceled and replaced with a Flood Watch.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Warning for Addison, Bennington, Orange, Rutland, Washington, Windsor, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and Essex County in New York due to heavy rains. A Flood Advisory has been issued for Grandisle, Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, and Caledonia Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, and Franklin Counties in Norther New York due to moderate to heavy rains.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
A Flood Warning is in effect from Champlain Valley Weather for the above mentioned counties due to heavy rainfall amounts. Heavy rainfall amounts combined with significant snowmelt will result in significant rises on area waterways. These water ways will continue to go out of there banks. Significant low land flooding, and flooding of low lying roads will likely occur. Some roads and culverts could be washed out as well. If you are traveling use extreme caution. Do not travel over a flooded road. If you live near a river creek or stream that is flooding, and endangering your property, then move to higher ground immediately.

         A Flood Advisory is in effect from Champlain Valley Weather for the above mentioned counties due to significant rainfall. This rainfall combined with snowmelt, will result in continued rapid rises on area waterways. Many small creeks and streams will likely go out of there banks, but flooding should remain minor. Additionally significant ponding of water on roadways is likely as well. If traveling use extreme caution, and do not travel over a flooded road.

         This was an update only to issue and update the Flood alerts. All Wind alerts have been cancelled. Rain will continue to taper off, and end after midnight. Flooding will continue to occur well after midnight, and the icejam threat will remain high into Tuesday morning.

Flood Threat High Across Central Vermont

FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2:30PM THIS AFTERNOON
(Click HERE For Details)

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM TONIGHT
(Click HERE For Details)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, as well as a Flood Warning for portions of the area. In all today 1-3 inches of rain is possible, across the watch area. Across the warning area, spotter reports and radar indicates that 1 to 1.5 inches of rain has already fallen as of 10:35AM. Additional rain of 1 to 2 inches is possible across the warning area.

     Current radar trends indicate that rain will continue for another 3-6 hours. Rain will be heavy at times, especially across Central, and Southern Vermont. Radar shows that precipitation has become more scattered since earlier this morning, across Central, and Southern Vermont. Right now the heaviest rain is falling in a band that stretches from Essex County New York, North and east into Orleans County Vermont. Doppler radar is estimating that rainfall rates are around a quarter inch per hour, with isolated higher rates. The heavier rain is expected to shift into Central, and Southern Vermont as time progresses. Stay tuned for further updates.

Update: Severe Weather/ Flash Flood Potential

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5AM THURSDAY MORNING (Click HERE For Details)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of Vermont, and portions of Eastern New York, for the potential of 1-2 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts. Click on the above red link to view the alert details.

     Things continue to look interesting as far as the Flash Flood Threat is concerned, however the Severe Thunderstorm threat, seems to be slowly diminishing.

     National Weather Service Doppler Radar is indicating numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across much of Vermont. These showers and thunderstorms have been training/ back building in some areas, and Doppler radar indicates that in excess of 3 inches of rain has fallen across Northwestern Rutland County. A Flood Advisory has been issued for that area. Rain will continue to overspread much of the area for the rest of the evening, and moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue into the early overnight hours before tapering off to showers. The heaviest rain should occur across the southern half of Vermont. Widespread rainfall totals are still expected to range from .75" - 1.5" inches, with very localized areas seeing 4-6 inches of rain. My flash flood watch will remain in effect.

     The Severe Thunderstorm threat seems to be diminishing. But still across Northern and Central Vermont, as Well as Northern New York, CAPE values remain in the 1500-2000j/kg range, with Lifted index's in the -4 to -6 range. The strongest storms at this time appear to be across Northwestern Vermont, and Northeastern New York. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will remain possibly across this area for at least a few more hours. My Severe Thunderstorm Watch will remain in effect until 8PM. Stay tuned to this developing situation.

Heavy Rains May Cause Flash Flooding In Northern New York

     Although Champlain Valley Weather does not regularly cover any other then the Champlain Valley of New York, I have decided to do a special post, on a potentialy hazardous situation in St. Lawerence County New York, that's ongoing right now.

     As of 6:10PM National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm with torrential rain, nearly stationary over parts of North-Central St. Lawrence County in Northern New York. National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that rainfall rates have reached nearly 3 inches per hour just northeast of Potsdam, and just east of Norwood. Doppler radar estimates that 2.5 to 4.0 Inches of rain has fallen. This storm is slowly drifting to the northeast, but moderate to heavy rain continues to persist over the same areas. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Advisory for this area, but a Flash Flood Warning may be needed if rain persists much longer. Of additional concern is additional thunderstorms developing in the same general area, along with a very slow moving swatch of moderate to heavy rain approaching from the west. This large area of rain will likely begin to effect this area within the next couple of hours. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2 inches with locally up to 3 inches can be expected by later tonight. This area will be watched very closely for the potential of Flash Flooding. If you live along Plum Brook or Tucker Brook or their tributaries it is strongly recommended to keep a very close eye on the level of the water. If you notice very rapidly rising water it is strongly recommended to move to higher ground.

     Also to note, heavy rain, and thunderstorms are developing and remaining nearly stationary in other portions of St. Lawrence County, and nearby Franklin County. Other locations that will need to be monitored for potential flooding problems are Slab City, Madrid, Madrid Springs, Waddington, and other towns near Route 345 from Potsdam, to Waddington. Also areas near Gile, and Spring Cove, and areas just west of those towns in the Adirondack Park Preserve.

   Stay tuned for any further updates!

Isolated Flash Flooding Possible Across Central Vermont

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Currently light to occasionally moderate rain is overspreading the area from West-Southwest to East-Northeast. The steadiest rains at this current time are over Northern New York, but this batch of rain is expected to move into Northern Vermont within the next hour or two.

     The National Weather Service has continued the flood watch for the entire area. Although flooding is unlikely across Northern Vermont. The greatest risk of flooding will be across Central Vermont, how much flooding in general is going to depend on how much more rain develops, and that is looking like a tough call.

     Models continue to indicate generally a half to three quarters of an inch of additional rainfall. With isolated amounts up to 1.25 inches. Now the problem is, the low pressure center is moving north, and those of us not currently in the warm sector, will be by later this evening. This will result in some instability, and with a cold front approaching from the west by late tonight, and into tomorrow, the risk for thunderstorms arise. Precipitable water values are in the 1.4 - 1.7 range, and if any thunderstorms were to occur, this would result in some significant downpours. Any slower moving storms that develop have the potential to easily produce rainfall in excess of 1 inch per hour. That amount of rain combined with current Flash Flood Guidance values generally ranging in the 1.00-1.50 inch range, the possibility for some isolated flash flooding exists, especially across Washington, and Addison Counties. Also the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has placed nearly all of Vermont under a slight risk for exceeding flash flood guidance. With that in mind, I have changed my suggested alerts map. I have put up a Flash Flood Watch, instead of a regular Flood Watch. I do want to urge though that if any Flash Flooding should occur it will be isolated, as instability should be marginal for thunderstorms. I also continue to exclude the Border Counties of Vermont, and New York, as not enough rain has fallen, to cause river flooding, nor will enough rain fall across those counties to cause river flooding. Also Flash Flooding is much less likely at this time, as once again not enough rain has fallen to elevate the risk for flash flooding. (Updated Maps Below.)