Heavy Rain & Damaging Winds Likely Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Night

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for Northern New York, and All of Vermont for sustained winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 55-75MPH range. The High Wind Warning is in effect from 11PM Tuesday until 8PM Wednesday.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain. The Flood Watch is in effect from 12AM Wednesday until 12AM Thursday.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -No alerts are currently in effect, but Flood Watches and Wind Alerts will likely be issued by the NWS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -No alerts are currently in effect, but Flood Watches and Wind Alerts will likely be issued by the NWS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure yet again forming over the Great lakes will push up against a strong high pressure system east of Maine. Another wave of low pressure will form over the mid-Atlantic region and ride up along a cold front extending from the low pressure system over the great lakes region. This will result in strong winds and heavy rain for our region starting Tuesday night, lasting into Wednesday night.

WIND
         An extremely tight pressure gradient will set up as low pressure squeezes up against strong high pressure east of Maine. Winds will start off from the south and then shift to the southeast Wednesday. Models indicate that winds at 5000ft will be ranging from 74-110MPH, and winds at 2500ft will be ranging from 46-83MPH. The full force of these winds shouldn't mix down to the surface due to the rain stabilizing the very surface, however enough Warm Air Advection will be ongoing on this southerly flow to mix down enough of these winds to call them damaging. When these winds shift to the southeast, I am strongly concerned for the Western slopes of the green mountains as southeast winds funnel through the mountain passes and mountain gaps resulting in much stronger winds then surrounding areas. Below is a wind forecast for different regions across the area, as winds wont be quite the same everywhere.

Western Slopes of the Green Mountains -Sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH will be likely Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 30-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 65-75MPH. Isolated wind gusts as high as 80MPH will be possible in places such as Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huntington, and Rutland.

Southern Vermont/ Eastern Vermont/ Northeast Kingdom/ Northern Adirondack Mountains -Sustained winds of 15-25MPH with gusts to 40MPH will be likely Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 30-40MPH range with gusts 60-65MPH possible.

Champlain Valley/ St. Lawrence Valley -Sustained winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 35MPH will be possible by Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will increase into the 25-35MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-60MPH.

RAINFALL
         Plenty of moisture will be streaming north into the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday night. The heaviest rain will fall during the day Wednesday. The heaviest rain accumulations are expected to be from Southern Vermont to the Champlain Valley and points west, where rainfall totals will range from 2 inches across the Champlain Valley, to locally 4 inches across portions of the Northern Adirondack Mountains, and the St. Lawrence Valley. For the spine of the Green mountains, and Northeast into the Northeast Kingdom 1-2 inches of rain is likely, with the lowest amounts in the shadowed areas of the Northeast Kingdom, and the immediate western slopes of the Green mountains. There is the chance for a brief period of snow late Wednesday night as a cold front pushes across the region.

         Enough rain is likely to cause some minor to perhaps moderate flooding, especially across Northern New York. It is important to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the National Weather Service, or other local media outlets as well as Champlain Valley Weather.