December 1, 2010

UPDATE: Heavy Rains & Damaging Winds Expected Today








Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for Northern New York, and All of Vermont for sustained winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 55-75MPH range. The High Wind Warning is in effect from until 8PM Tonight.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and for Western Vermont for the potential of 1.5-3 inches of rain. The Flood Watch is in effect from until 12AM Thursday.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a High Wind Warning for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains for winds in the 20-40MPH range with gusts up to 70MPH. The Warning is in effect until 7PM tonight.

         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issed a Wind Advisory for the Northern Adirondack mountains, and for Western Franklin and Western Chittenden Counties for winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts up to 55MPH. The Advisory is in effect until 6PM this evening.

         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a Flood Watch for the Northern Adirondack mountains for the potential of 1.5-2.5 inches of rain with localized amounts near 3 inches. The Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a Wind Advisory for Bennington, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont for winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts in the 40-55MPH range. The Advisory is in effect until 6PM this evening.

         -The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a Flood Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for the potential of 2-3 inches of rain with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. The Watch is in effect through Thursday Morning.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure North of the Great lakes will push up against a strong high pressure system Northeast of Maine. Another wave of low pressure has formed over Pennsylvania and will ride up along a cold front extending from the low pressure system North of the Great lakes region. This will result in strong winds and heavy rain for our region Today and Tonight.

WIND
         An extremely tight pressure gradient has set up across our area due to low pressure squeezing up against strong high pressure Northeast of Maine. Models continue to indicate that winds at 5000ft will be ranging from 74-101MPH, and winds at 2500ft will be ranging from 46-83MPH. The full force of these winds shouldn't mix down to the surface due to the rain stabilizing the very surface, however enough Warm Air Advection will be ongoing on this southerly flow to mix down enough of these winds to call them damaging. I continue to be strongly concerned for the Western slopes of the green mountains as southeast winds funnel through the mountain passes and mountain gaps resulting in much stronger winds then surrounding areas. There is some questions as to how strong the winds will be in the St. Lawrence Valley, at this point I have held them at Warning level, but they may need to be dropped down to an Advisory later this morning. Conditions will continue to be monitored. Below is a wind forecast for different regions across the area, as winds wont be quite the same everywhere.

Western Slopes of the Green Mountains -Today sustained winds will be in the 30-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 65-75MPH. Isolated wind gusts as high as 80MPH will be possible in places such as Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huntington, and Rutland.

Southern Vermont/ Eastern Vermont/ Northeast Kingdom/ Northern Adirondack Mountains -Today sustained winds will be in the 25-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-65MPH.

Champlain Valley/ St. Lawrence Valley -Sustained winds today will be in the 20-35MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-60MPH.

RAINFALL
         Had to make some changes to the Flood Watch as rainfall wont be as heavy along the spine of the Green mountains and points east, as shadowing from the mountains will help reduce rain totals. So the flood watch from the spine of the Green mountains and east has been cancelled. Rainfall totals in the Flood watch area will range from 1.5 to 3 inches with isolated amounts reaching 3.5 inches across favored upslope regions of the Northern Adirondack mountains. Becareful out there today!

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