Alert Details:
The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Flood Watch for all of Vermont and Northern New York for the potential of 3-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts by early Friday morning.
The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Flood Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for 2-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible by early Friday morning. A High Wind Watch is also in effect for the potential of strong to damaging wind gusts in excess of 60MPH.
Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Wind Advisory for All of Vermont, and portions of Northeastern New York, for sustained winds of 15-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH. Isolated gusts to 55MPH are possible in areas most vulnerable to south winds in the higher elevations. Winds will increase Thursday afternoon, and tapper off by Friday morning. Depending on the overall strength and track of the system, winds could potential be stronger and a High Wind Warning may be needed with short notice. A Flood Watch is also in effect for all of Northern New York, and Vermont for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain with isolated amounts exceeding 4 inches in favored upslope regions in the extreme eastern Adirondacks, and southern portions of Vermont. This amounts of rain, will likely lead to minor to moderate flooding. If widespread 4"+ amounts occur, then significant flooding may occur. Rain will be heaviest during Thursday afternoon, into Thursday night. Stay tuned for further updates.
Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
A significant storm system is set to impact the area, including the remnants of former Tropical Storm Nicole. A series of low pressure waves will ride up along a stalled front across our region Early Thursday morning through Thursday night. Due to its origins being from the tropics, a tropical airmass will be overhead and result in significant rainfall. At this time I am forecasting 2-4 inches with as little as 2 inches in the Champlain Valley to as much as 4 or more inches across upslope region of the Adirondacks, and across portions of Southern Vermont. Still a bit concerned that numerous models are indicated the potential for a widespread rainfall in excess of 4 inches across portions of the area, but I am hoping it is just convective feedback on the models, which does happen often. I am concerned though, because even 3 or 4 inches of rain will likely result in widespread minor to possibly moderate flooding. This will have to be watched very closely.
The next concern with this system is wind. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten up significantly, especially the further south you go. Generally a South wind spells trouble for the Champlain Valley, but due to the track of the low pressure centers being fairly close/ almost overhead of the Champlain Valley, they may be relieved of some very strong winds. Not to mention that the lower levels may end up being a bit to stable due to the rain, for the winds to mix down from further up in the atmosphere. At this point though, I feel a Wind advisory is needed. If the storm tracks are slightly further to the west, and/ or near the surface is a bit more unstable, then stronger winds could occur. This will be closely monitored. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation.
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