Severe Thunderstorms End For Tonight

National Weather Service, Burlington, VT.

     The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont continues the Flash Flood Watch Until 5AM, for Western Vermont, and much of Northern New York. A Flood Advisory continues for Essex County in New York until 12:30AM, and a Flood Advisory continues for Clinton County in New York until 2:30AM. For more information on these alerts, please go to the above National Weather Service link, and click on the map in the vicinity of where you live.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Thunderstorms are beginning to diminish, and the threat for them to be Severe has diminished. With the sun setting, daytime heating has ended too, and with the showers, and thunderstorms that have moved over the region, the atmosphere is stabilizing rapidly.

     Rain and non-severe thunderstorms will continue until midnight, and then rain showers will continue for a few more hours before all but ending. The most additional rain should fall in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and New York, and the nearby Eastern Slopes of the Adirondack mountains, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Additional rainfall totals should range from a half to one and a half inches. The flash flood threat will persist for several more hours, but it should not be as high a threat as earlier. We may be doing this all over again tomorrow, so stay tuned for further updates!

Severe Thunderstorms Pushing North

     The National Weather Service in Burlington, has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Franklin, Chittenden, Grandisle, Washington, Lamoille, and Addison Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, and Essex Counties in New York until 7:30PM. Doppler radar is indicated a line of severe thunderstorms moving North, capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60MPH. This same line of thunderstorms has had a history of producing damaging winds in excess of 80MPH across Northern Rutland, and Southern Addison Counties in Vermont. CLICK ON THE MAP ABOVE FOR MORE ALERT DETAILS!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #533 In Effect For Parts Of Our Region

Overview: The National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma, has issued Severe Thunderstorm watch #533 for parts of our region. Hail to 2 inches in diameter, and thunderstorm wind gust to 70MPH are possible in the strongest of storms. (Click on either map above for alert details)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Today looks to be rather interesting. Significant sunshine was able to break through the clouds this morning, and destabilize the atmosphere significantly from the Champlain Valley, and points west. Currently the most unstable atmosphere is over the Champlain Valley itself, where sun has been prevalent much of the day. Across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, MUCAPE values range from 900 j/kg to 1500 j/kg, with SBCAPE values ranging from 800 j/kg to 1000 j/kg, and LI's in the -1 to -4 range. All together what this is indicating is that the atmosphere is unstable, and the likelihood for thunderstorms is fairly high, with severe thunderstorms possible.

     The primary severe threat will be large hail, due to freezing heights being slightly lower then normal due to the upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes region. Secondary threat will be damaging winds, and the final threat being the possibility of a very brief tornado, due to some rotation.

     Aside from the severe thunderstorm aspect, overall the main threat today, will be for isolated Flash Flooding. With Precipitable water values in the 1.0 - 1.5 range today, and the possibility of training/ backing thunderstorms, it wont take much to get storms to drop 1-2 inches in a short period of time. Some isolated storms could even produce up to 3 inches! The greatest threat for any Flash Flooding would be across the higher terrain of Clinton, and Essex Counties in New York, and the Western slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont, especially where areas in Vermont received 1-2 inches of rain yesterday, leading to lowering Flash Flood Values. With this in mind, I have extended the Flash Flood Watch on my "Suggested Alerts" map, and it now covers the entire Champlain Valley coverage area. The reason I expanded it west, is because that's where storms should be most numerous, however any slow moving storms that can push into the Western Slopes, and Eastern Vermont will have the potential to produce isolated Flash Flooding.

     Aside from the Severe weather details, recently Champlain Valley Weather has had a team put together to do some Storm Chasing. Currently we do not have computer access in the Chase Vehicles so we have our own Storm Tracker in which we stay in frequent contact with, so we are sent to the hot spots. With all this in mind we urge you to view the site frequently, as days when we are out chasing we will send texts direct to the Champlain Valley Weather site so you know exactly whats going on out on the roads. Today we plan on Chasing from 3-8PM if storms being to develop, so stay tuned to the site for Chase posts, with live from the scene damage or flooding photos!

Moderate To Heavy Rain May Cause Flooding Concerns Into Friday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Currently rain is falling light to moderately across the entire area. With just patchy drizzle along the immediate international border of Vermont. A storm system as of 24 hours ago was supposed to bring as much as 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts to Northern New York, and Vermont, especially along the international border. But things are not occurring quite as expected. The stalled out frontal boundary, had stalled out a bit further to the south then models indicated 24 hours ago. Also not as much moisture has made it into the area. Although its not mentioned I feel the reason for this, is a sub-tropical low pressure system off the coast of the Carolina's which I feel is stealing some moisture.

     Also looking at current radar trends it appears the frontal boundary is currently drifting a bit farther south. This is resulting in a very sharp precipitation cut off to drift south of the international border in Vermont. As of 12:00AM this has resulted in rain changing to drizzle or coming to an end along a line from North Alburgh, to Swanton, to Enosburgh, to Orleans, and to Island Pond. Radar trends continue to show this line slowly drifting south. At this point I am not quite sure how far south this will push. It may be able to push as far south as a line extending from Chazy, New York to South Hero, to Milton, to Johnson, to West Burke Vermont. This area of rain should push back North by Thursday Afternoon. At this point though it appears the heaviest rain will fall across Eastern Essex County, New York, and Washington, and Addison Counties in Vermont, by Friday afternoon. The above mentioned counties are the most likely to see isolated amounts to just over 3 inches. (Alert Maps Below.)