Moderate To Heavy Rain May Cause Flooding Concerns Into Friday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Currently rain is falling light to moderately across the entire area. With just patchy drizzle along the immediate international border of Vermont. A storm system as of 24 hours ago was supposed to bring as much as 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts to Northern New York, and Vermont, especially along the international border. But things are not occurring quite as expected. The stalled out frontal boundary, had stalled out a bit further to the south then models indicated 24 hours ago. Also not as much moisture has made it into the area. Although its not mentioned I feel the reason for this, is a sub-tropical low pressure system off the coast of the Carolina's which I feel is stealing some moisture.

     Also looking at current radar trends it appears the frontal boundary is currently drifting a bit farther south. This is resulting in a very sharp precipitation cut off to drift south of the international border in Vermont. As of 12:00AM this has resulted in rain changing to drizzle or coming to an end along a line from North Alburgh, to Swanton, to Enosburgh, to Orleans, and to Island Pond. Radar trends continue to show this line slowly drifting south. At this point I am not quite sure how far south this will push. It may be able to push as far south as a line extending from Chazy, New York to South Hero, to Milton, to Johnson, to West Burke Vermont. This area of rain should push back North by Thursday Afternoon. At this point though it appears the heaviest rain will fall across Eastern Essex County, New York, and Washington, and Addison Counties in Vermont, by Friday afternoon. The above mentioned counties are the most likely to see isolated amounts to just over 3 inches. (Alert Maps Below.)