UPDATE: Severe Weather/ Flash Flood Potential

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Just a quick update to the current conditions, severe thunderstorm potential, and Flash Flooding potential.

     Currently temps have risen into the low to mid 80's with some upper 80's being reported such as Morrisville at 87F, Swanton Village at 87F, and Highgate at 86F. Dewpoints are in the upper 60's with isolated 70+ degree reading pushing up from the south, such as Glens Falls with a dewpoint of 71F, and 72F at Saratoga Springs, and Albany, New York. These higher dewpoints will continue to push north into our region. So my previous forecast of dewpoints around 70 still looks good. My temperature forecast of 82-87F will be increased to 84-89F and isolated areas good hit 90F, especially in the Champlain Valley.

     With the above mentioned, the severe weather aspect also needs to be tweaked. The atmosphere has destabilized significantly more then I had expected. CAPE values are now in the 1500-2000 j/kg range with isolated areas in the 2100-2300 j/kg range. Lifted Index's are in the -4 to -6 range with isolated areas in the -7 range. With mainly sunny skies expected for at least a couple more hours, it appears that CAPE values will max out in the 2000-2500 j/kg range, with isolated areas seeing 3000 j/kg possible. Lifted index's should range from -5 to -7 with isolated areas getting to -8 or -9. These parameters show the atmosphere is volatile right now, and once convection starts to form, it will become widespread. Any storms that become severe will have the potential to produce damaging winds, and large hail. An isolated tornado is possible, especially across Southern areas. My severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect.

     The Flash flood threat continues to be the greatest concern at this point. PWAT values are currently in the 1.4 to 1.6 range and will increase into the 1.7 to 2.0 range. These values are very high, meaning the potential for excessive rainfall is high. The upper level winds are also favorable for training/ back building of storms, which means a couple of inches of rain could fall in isolated areas, within just an hours time. Widespread rainfall totals should range from .75" to 1.5" inches, with very isolated areas seeing as much as 4 - 6 inches of rain. The isolated heaviest amounts are more likely across Southern Vermont where PWAT values may be locally greater then 2.0. My flash flood watch will remain in effect.

     Once again the National Weather Service has not issued any official alerts across our area. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and Flash Flood Watch across Extreme Southern Vermont. However there is no official National Weather Service alerts in effect for our area. Stay tuned for further updates!