Coastal Storm To Bring Wintry Precipitation & Strong Winds

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Northern New York, most of Vermont, and the Northern Champlain Valley. For a mix of wintry precipitation, with snow/ sleet accumulations up to 1 inch, and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued A Wind Advisory for the entire Champlain Valley, the Eastern Adirondack, and the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Sustained Northerly winds will be in the 15-30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH. Isolated strong wind gusts could occur along the Lake Champlain shoreline.

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NWS Burlington, VT
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Adirondack Mountains, and much of Vermont excluding the Champlain Valley. For a mix of wintry precipitation with Snow/ sleet accumulations up to 1 inch, and a minor ice accumulation.

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NWS Albany, NY
         -The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont. For a mix of wintry precipitation with snow/ sleet accumulations less then one inch, and Ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         A low pressure system developing well off the Coast will retrograde back west towards Cape Cod overnight into tomorrow morning. This will spread precipitation across our region late tonight into tomorrow. With cold air in place at the surface, precipitation will start of in the frozen form, eventually transitioning to all rain across the entire region.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION
         Precipitation in almost all locations should start in the frozen form, however most valley locations should switch over to all rain fairly early. The Frozen precipitation will hold on longer across the Northern Champlain Valley, and especially across the higher elevations, and mountain valleys across Vermont, and Northeastern New York. There is some concern though, with strong north winds, that cooler air could hold on longer then expected, resulting in more frozen precipitation for the entire area, including the entire Champlain Valley. At this point though, I will leave the Central, and Southern portions of the Champlain Valley out of the Winter Weather Advisory, and monitor conditions closely.

WIND
         With a tight pressure gradient setting up, and winds being from the North, the Champlain Valley and areas just to the east, and west of the Valley will experience some strong winds. Right now 925mb winds are expected to be 35-55 knots over the Champlain Valley, and adjacent areas. Winds should mix down the most right over Lake Champlain with wind gusts on the open lake up to 60MPH possible. Inland across the Advisory area though winds will be slightly less with sustained winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH. Along the Lakeshore winds could be slightly higher. Areas not in a Wind Advisory will see winds in the 10-25MPH range with gusts 30-40MPH.

RAINFALL
         With recent moderate to heavy rainfall, and very saturated ground, it wouldn't take much additional rain to cause some flooding. At this point though liquid equivalent/ rainfall totals should range from a half inch in downslope areas of the Northeast Kingdom, to around 1 inch or slightly higher in the Champlain Valley due to favorable valley convergence with a strong Northerly flow. At this time only very minor flooding is possible, and not enough to warrant a flood watch. Should things change, then a Flood Watch may be needed. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.