Wintry Mix & Strong To Damaging Winds Possible

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Watch for the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and New York for potential of strong to damaging winds of 25-40MPH with gusts 55-60MPH. The Watch is in effect from 11PM tonight until 6PM Thursday.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Northern Adirondack mountains in Northern New York, and much of Vermont, except the Champlain Valley and Western Rutland County for a Wintry mix of precipitation, with up to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation. The Advisory is in effect from 10PM this evening until 10AM Thursday morning.

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National Weather Service:
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has not issued any alerts at this time.

         -The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Southern VT for wintry mix, and light glaze of ice. The Advisory is in effect from 10PM tonight until 6AM Thursday.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A significant storm system to impact the region later tonight into tomorrow, as a low pressure system strengthens from the Great Lakes region up into Canada. At this point it appears that the onset of precipitation will occur tonight resulting in cool temperatures to start, and light snow and/ or sleet should start nearly everywhere. The wintry precipitation will rapidly change over to rain though in the Champlain, and St. Lawrence Valleys, but the higher elevations, and especially the sheltered valley's will see the wintry precipitation last the longest, where it will change over to a period of freezing rain. Some of the most sheltered valley's in the Advisory area could see light freezing rain last until around 10AM tomorrow morning. This will result in up to 1 inch of snow, and up to two tenths of an inch of ice by 10AM tomorrow morning.

         As the strengthening storm system moves northeast from the Great Lakes, and into Canada a strong low level jet will develop resulting in strong southerly winds across the area. Nearly everyone will see wind gusts over 30MPH, however strong winds will occur in the St. Lawrence Valley and potentially damaging winds will occur in the Champlain Valley. At this point it appears the St. Lawrence Valley will see winds of 15-25MPH with gusts 45-50MPH. The same winds are likely in the Southern Champlain Valley as well. Across the Central, and especially Northern Champlain Valley though, winds will likely be stronger, and potentially damaging. Winds are expected to be in the 25-40MPH range with gusts 50 to 60MPH. The strongest winds will likely be closest to the lake shore, and over Grand Isle County. Over the open waters of Lake Champlain winds will be even stronger in the 40-50MPH range with gusts up to 65MPH. This will result in large battering waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain. There is still some question as to whether or not any rain will stabilize the surface layer and prevent the winds from mixing down to the surface, so at this point a High Wind Watch is in effect. It does appear likely that High Wind Warnings, and Wind Advisories will likely be issued later tonight, once a little more weather model data becomes available. Stay tuned for updates on this developing weather situation.

Another Storm Storm System To Impact The Region Sunday Into Monday

Alerts:
CPV Weather:
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for the Western slopes of the Green mountains in Vermont for winds in the 20-40MPH range with gusts ranging from 65-75MPH, especially in favored areas such as Richford, Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huninton, and Rutland.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a High Wind Warning for the Northern Adirondack Mountains in New York for winds in the 15-35MPH range with gusts ranging from 55-65MPH. All Warnings are in effect from 8AM Sunday morning until 8PM Sunday night.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Wind Advisory for the Champlain Valley, and Western Rutland County in Vermont for winds in the 15-25MPH range with gusts in the 45-55MPH range. The Highest gusts will occur across areas closes to the Western slopes of the Green mountains.

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NWS Burlington, VT:
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a High Wind Watch for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, and Western Rutland County for winds in the 20-35MPH range with gusts up to 60MPH.

         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a High Wind Watch for the Northern Adirondack Mountains in New York, for winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 55MPH. The watches are in effect from Sunday Morning through Sunday Night.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a High Wind Watch for Bennington, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont for winds in the 20-40MPH range with gusts in the 50-60MPH range. The Watch is in effect from Sunday Morning through Monday Morning.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure over the Great Lake region will continue to move Northeast towards the St. Lawrence River Valley. A new low pressure system is expected to form near North Carolina, and move Northward over Western Vermont. This will result in primarily strong winds and rain.

WIND
         Winds will be the primary concern with this storm, especially along the Western slopes of the Green mountains. At this point winds shouldn't be quite as strong as they were on the Dec. 1st storm, but still gusts in excess of 65MPH is likely across the favored downslope areas. Isolated gusts to 75MPH could be possible. Max wind gusts in the Dec. 1st storm were in the 80-90MPH range, so this time around it will be damaging but not quite as bad. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely.

PRECIPITATION
         This system will start of with a mix of Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain, and change over to all rain Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will change back to some snow by late Monday. By then most of the precipitation will be out of the region. Rain totals will range from a half inch in downslope areas to around 1 inch in the favored upslope areas. No flooding is expected. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing storm system.

Wintry Precipitation To Effect The Area Thursday Night

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Northern New York, and all of Vermont. For a mix of wintry precipitation, with snow/ sleet accumulations up to 2 inches in the higher terrain, and ice accumulations of up to a third of an inch, with the highest amounts being in the higher terrain, and in the St. Lawrence Valley of Northern New York.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Low pressure will continue to develop over the midwestern state, and move Northeast through the Great Lakes region, while a new low pressure system will form off the Southern New England Coast, and move Northeast into the Canadian Maritimes Friday afternoon/ evening.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION
         Snow, Sleet, and Freezing rain will begin from South and move north overnight Thursday night into Friday Morning. The precipitation will switch to mainly freezing rain, and then mix with or change to plain rain in the afternoon hours Friday, before changing back to snow showers Friday evening. For the Champlain Valley snowfall accumulations up to 1 inch are possible with ice accumulations from one to two tenths of an inch. For the St. Lawrence Valley snowfall accumulations up to 1 inch are possible with ice accumulations of two tenths of an inch to one third of an inch. For the higher elevations of New York, and Vermont snowfall accumulations of up to 2 inches with ice accumulations of two tenths of an inch to one third of an inch are possible. Isolated higher snow and ice totals are possible by Friday afternoon. This is going to create hazardous driving conditions, if you must be out on the roads, use extreme caution overnight Thursday into Friday afternoon. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.

Heavy Wet Snow Tonight Into Wednesday Night - Power Outages Possible

Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of Vermont, and Northern New York for heavy wet snow accumulations of 12-18 inches in the Northern Adirondack Mountains, 8-14 inches across South Central Vermont, 4-10 inches across North Central and portions of Northeast Vermont, and 4-8 inches for the entire Champlain Valley. They have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the St. Lawrence Valley and the far Northeast Kingdom for heavy wet accumulations of snow ranging from 2-6 inches.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Storm Warning for extreme southern Vermont for the potential of 8-16 inches of snow.

       & Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Northern Adirondack Mountains, and portions of Central and Southern Vermont for 12-16 inches of snow with isolated amounts exceeding 16 inches across the highest of elevations, and favored upslope regions lower elevations in these areas will see 8-12 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley, the Champlain Valley, and much of Northern Vermont for 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Weather models are finally starting to agree somewhat upon a solution, especially for this first part of the storm. While small differences still remain, I feel confident enough to issue Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the area.

         I will admit I was having a hard time deciding whether or not to issue a Warning or Advisory for the areas receiving 4-8 inches. The reason being, this event is going to be around 24 hours long, and criteria to issue a Warning is 6 or more inches of snow within 12 hours or 8 or more inches of snow within 24 hours. Going strictly by that criteria an Advisory was issued, but I was contemplating the possibility of a Warning due to the fact the snow is going to be extremely wet and heavy, and has a good possibility of producing some power outages. At this time though I will hold off on a Warning, but I want you to be aware that the Advisory may be changed to a Warning depending on how this storm evolves. One more point I would like to make about this heavy wet snow, is all areas will have the potential for some power outages. Across the Warning area this will be even more important as the higher accumulations of very wet and heavy snow could cause some roof collapses, especially where 12 or more inches fall. Places that could experience roof collapses would be poorly constructed sheds or barns. With this storm it will be important to keep the snow cleared off your roofs.

         As for this portions of the long durations storm, you can expect a snow/ rain mix to develop across the region late this afternoon and spread from south to north. Snow will become heavy at times overnight tonight, and snowfall rates could reach 1-2 inches per hour for a time on Wednesday. Snowfall intensities like this will result in visibility under a half to quarter mile at times, and result in rapid accumulations. If you must travel tomorrow, use cautions and stay updated on this developing winter storm.

         Before I finish this post I am going to brush upon the next significant portions of this storm, which will be a low pressure system for Thursday into Friday night. This low pressure system will likely make this current system look small. This is because the next storm is not only going to effect a larger area of the Northeastern united states, but its going to have the potential to produce Blizzard conditions. A few models are indicating this potential such as the GFS which strengthens the low to 976mb over NYC, the RSM 976 over Albany, the NAM 980mb over NYC, and the WRF model 986mb over Rhode Island. That's just a few. The only thing with this, as the storm retrogrades back to the above mentioned areas at their above mentioned strength then this may cause warm air to push into our region, especially Northern areas. If that were to occur then more rain might be the result, also strong winds may cause significant shadowing across much of Northern Vermont. At this time though we will deal with the upcoming portions of this complex storm, and go from there. Stay tuned for further updates.

3 Part Storm System To Bring Significant Snow To The Region This Week

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Everything regarding the upcoming storm remains complicated, but with the first part of the storm set to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday night, I have had to make some decisions, although confidence is only moderate at this time.


Storm Part 1:
Tonight into Tuesday Afternoon...
         Light snow showers are expected to develop tonight with the first part of this storm system. This part of the storm is expected to remain fairly insignificant. Total snow accumulations from Tonight into Tuesday afternoon will range from T-1 inches in the Valley locations to 1-3 inches for the higher elevations.


Storm Part 2:
Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night...
         I have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area, for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Snow will increase in intensity overnight Tuesday and fall moderate to occasional heavy late afternoon Wednesday into Wednesday night before slowly lightening up. Snow totals by late Wednesday night will range from 6-10 inches for the Valley's and 10-15 inches for the higher elevations, and favored upslope regions, if temps happen to warm up then snow may mix with sleet or rain especially in valley locations and if this were to occur then valley locations may see significantly less then 6-10 inches of snow. Now if the precipitation remains all snow, then the snow will be wet and heavy with a 10:1 ratio likely, especially for the lower elevations. These amounts of wet and heavy snow will likely cause tress to be weighed down as well as power lines.


Storm Part 3:
Thursday into Friday Night...
         Light snow will be ongoing accumulating an additional 1-2 inches across the area before this next and likely most significant portion of the system takes over, in this time frame the most significant snowfall of the entire week will likely occur. A Winter storm watch may be required for this portions of the storm later in the week. Current indications suggest a low pressure system over the ocean will back towards new England and strengthen rapidly as it does so, this will result in significant amounts of moisture being thrown over our area. There is some question though as to how much warm air gets pulled in off the ocean and over our region. Current indications at this point though would lead to another 9-14 inches of snow region wide. Snow will tapper off overnight Friday night and only light snow showers will continue into Saturday night. The light snow showers will be capable of producing an additional 1-2 inches.

         Overall if these storm totals were to come to fruition, all together for the entire week snow totals would range from 14-25 inches in the Valley locations to 22-36 inches for the higher elevations. I would like to urge this is only on current forecasts, and confidence is only moderate at this time for the early stages of the storm, and then confidence decreases from there. This is an extremely difficult system to predict, especially with models not agreeing on a solution. Stay tuned for further updates.

UPDATE: Heavy Rain & Strong Winds Tonight Into Monday

Current Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT continues a Flood Watch for much of Vermont, and portions of Northern New York for the potential of flooding from heavy rains, and the potential for ice jam flooding due to expected rapid rises on area waterways. They also have issued A Wind Advisory, which is in effect for the Western slopes of the Green mountains for Southeast winds of 25-35MPH with gusts up to 50MPH possible after midnight tonight.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY continues a Flash Flood Watch for extreme Southern Vermont for the potential of flash flooding due to heavy rains, and possible ice jam flooding due to significant rises on area waterways.

         Champlain Valley Weather continues a Flood Watch for much of Vermont, and portions of Northern New York for the potential of a widespread 1-2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, which will lead to potential flooding, and significant rises on area waterways, which will also produce great risk of ice jam flooding. A High Wind Warning now replaces the previous High Wind Watch, for the Western slopes of the Green mountains for the potential of strong southeast winds of 25-40MPH with gusts up to 60MPH, with isolated higher gusts in most favored mountain gap locations.


Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A significant storm system, will begin to impact the region later this evening, with strong to potentially damaging winds, moderate to heavy rain, and potential flooding on Monday.

         Currently, a 984mb low pressure system over Northeastern Wisconsin, will continue to move North-Northeast today, and this evening. Out ahead of this system a strong, and moist southerly flow upon a tightening pressure gradient will continue to result in temperatures rising, moisture pushing into our area, and winds to increase.

         Heavy rain and the flood potential is the primary concern with this system. Rain will develop later this evening, and become heavy at times after midnight. Rain will continue heavy at times through Monday morning, and begin to diminish in intensity Monday afternoon. Rainfall totals are depicted on the map at the top of this post, so please make sure to check that out. The heaviest rain still appears to be across Central, and Southern Vermont. Its not out of the question for isolated amounts in excess of 3-4 inches to occur, especially across the Southeast upslope areas of the Central, and Southern Green mountains. This amount of rain combined with snowmelt, from temperatures being in the 40's to near 50 Monday, will result in rapid rises on area waterways.

         With the ground being frozen the rainfall, and snow melt will flow directly into area waterways, and not be absorbed by the ground at all, which is very significant. I was thinking about following the National Weather Service in Albany, NY and issue a Flash Flood Watch for everyone, but a large question remains as to how much the current snowpack will be able to absorb and hold the rain. In the Champlain, and St. Lawrence Valley's there is around 4-9 inches of snow. The snowpack across these places wont be able to absorb the rain as the snowpack is not that great. Across the higher terrain though especially about 1000 feet, snowpack of 12+ inches remains. These areas will be able to hold the rain better, but with warmer temperatures the past week or so, with slight melting everyday, and the expected warmer temperatures today, and Monday the snowpack may be ripe, and if it is, then rapid snowmelt will occur as well in the higher elevations. But its not knowing, which is holding me off from a Flash Flood Watch.

         Eitherway, rapid rises on area waterways will occur, and with the rivers rising, and a solid sheet of ice across them, this ice will become unstable and begin to break. This will result in a significant ice jam threat, and their associated flooding risks. So overall I feel a flood watch is the safe bet, and we will remain with that.

         Right now the pressure gradient is tight, but no where as tight as what it will be later tonight or tomorrow morning. Already we are seeing a primarily southerly wind, which is being enhanced in the Champlain Valley resulting in sustained winds in the 10-20MPH range, with gusts in the 25-35MPH range. Earlier a wind gust of 41MPH was recorded at the National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont. The 41MPH wind gust appears to be a more localized stronger gust, and remains shy of the 46MPH gust criteria for a Wind Advisory. These winds will continue to be monitored, but at this point I am not going to issue a Wind Advisory, and you will likely not see one issued for the National Weather Service for the Champlain Valley either.

         As the winds slowly shift to a more southeasterly direction things will become more interesting overnight, especially along the western slopes of the Green mountains, where the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory. I feel winds are going to be stronger then anticipated and I have issued a High Wind Warning. I feel there will be a time period long enough for High Wind Warning type winds to occur before the heaviest rain moves in to stabilize the lower layer of the atmosphere. Even then I feel damaging wind gusts will be able to mix down and funnel through the favorable mountain gaps, and passes of the Western slopes of the Green mountains. Therefor in areas such as Richford, Bakersfield, Cambridge, Jericho, Huntington, Appalachian Gap, Rutland, and Bennington, winds will increase into the 25-40MPH range by late tonight, with gusts in the 60MPH range. Some of these gusts will be able to accelerate better through some of the mountain gaps, and isolated wind gusts to 70MPH are possible in the most favorable gap locations. The strongest winds should occur prior to the heaviest rainfall, but even after the heaviest rain moves in, isolated damaging wind gusts will likely continue, but be less often, and likely be well under 70MPH. The strong to damaging winds should start to diminish later Monday afternoon.

         The last concern is the potential for some light icing at the onset of precipitation tonight, especially across the sheltered valley's of eastern Vermont, and the extreme Northern St. Lawrence Valley of New York. The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for the Northeast Kingdom and Eastern Vermont for the potential of up to a tenth inch of ice accumulation. I am holding off on issuing a Freezing rain advisory, while I feel the areas that receive ice accumulation in eastern Vermont will be very isolated. Also I feel if any area has a greater threat of seeing icing, it would be the extreme Northern St. Lawrence Valley, where winds remain out of the northeast, and the temperatures are still below freezing. The atmosphere is also very dry, and as the precipitation tries to fall through the atmosphere it will result in evaporative cooling, which will help lower temperatures a couple degrees area wide. So places currently hovering around freezing will likely fall below freezing, resulting in some sleet/ freezing rain. I will continue to monitor this potential, for the possibility of issuing a Freezing Rain Advisory for the Northern St. Lawrence Valley, and perhaps portions of eastern Vermont. Stay tuned to Champlain Valley Weather, and your locally weather and media outlets for further information on this upcoming storm system. I will try to have another update later this evening.

Nor'Easter To Strike The Region Tonight Into Monday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Rutland and Windsor Counties for 3-5 inches of snow by Monday afternoon.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY continues a Winter Storm Watch for the potential of 7 or more inches of snow, with a trace of ice accumulation, by Monday afternoon.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Bennington, Windham, Windsor, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont for 6-9 inches of snow with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Also a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Western Rutland County for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow.

         Currently, everything appears to be on track with this storm system. Right now a 1000mb low pressure system is over central Tennessee, and is starting to transfer its energy to the coast. The low pressure system should continue to move Northeast and up to around Southern West Virginia, where it will then transfer the rest of its energy to the new low pressure system over the Delmarva Peninsula. This low pressure system will then continue to move Northeast, and pass to the east of Cape cod.

         This track will result in precipitation starting as a Wintry mix over the area late this afternoon, and rapidly change to snow, and become heavy at time overnight before ending by Monday afternoon. Total snow accumulation remain unchanged from the previous post, and the map I issued last night at the top remains unchanged. Stay tuned for further updates.

Nor'easter To Impact The Region Sunday Night Into Monday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Southern, VT for the potential of 7 or more inches of snow, along with the potential for up to a half inch of ice accumulation.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Bennington, Windham, Windsor, and Western Rutland Counties in Southern Vermont, for the potential of 6-9 inches of Snow, with up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation.

         Currently a 1004mb low North of the Mouth of the Mississippi river continues to push North to North-Northeast. Substantial amounts of moisture accompany this system, as it has originated from the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure system will continue on a North-Northeast motion up to around the Southern portions of West Virginia, where it will then transfer its energy to a new low pressure center that will form near the Delmarva Peninsula, then move northeast, and by the eastern side of Cape Cod.

         This track will allow precipitation to develop across southern Vermont by late Sunday afternoon, and then slowly intensify into the evening hours. The onset of precipitation may fall in the form of Rain or Freezing Rain, but quickly change to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and eventual all snow my the evening hours. Snow could be heavy at times overnight Sunday Night into Monday morning. Precipitation should gradual tapper off by Monday afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations at this point appear to range from 3-6 inches in the Connecticut River Valley in Southern Vermont, and the Northwestern Potions of Rutland County to 6-9 inches across much of Windsor, Windham, Bennington, and Western Rutland Counties, with localized higher amounts in the higher elevations of the Southern Green mountains. For Central Vermont, and portions of Northern New York 1-3 inches can be expected, with only a Trace to 1 inch across the extreme Northern portions of Vermont, and Northern New York.

         I would like to urge that models have been trending further to the Southeast since last night. So it appears the exact track and strength is still not known. Any deviations North or South in the track could have a large impact on how much snow falls, and where. Stay tuned for further updates.

Potential MLK Jr Day Winter Storm

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         I have been holding off on discussing this storm for a while now, mainly due to the fact models have been fairly consistent on a southern sliding storm. But after many days of model solutions, they have drifted the storm from being a southern slider, to a New England special. At this time, its still somewhat uncertain the final track and strength of this system, but at current indications, this system will likely be a more moderate to significant event, but not a major nor'easter. There is still plenty of time though, and I will keep everyone updated as things continue to unfold.

         Currently, a moisture laden 1007mb low pressure system has formed over the Western gulf of Mexico. I am becoming concerned that this system may become stronger then currently expected while over the relatively warm waters of the gulf of Mexico, which could change things a bit. But at this time I will leave it as is. This low pressure system should track Northeast, and the North up into Alabama, although the latest model trends have it even further west, and tracking up into the Mississippi River Valley. The low will then continue pushing North-Northeast and up to around the southern end of West Virginia, before it completely transfers its energy over a new coastal low, that will form off the New Jersey Coast. This low will then travel northeast, and over Cape cod, and then continue to track east-northeast and out to sea. This is a bit further south then the 18Z NAM model, which tracks it over Long Island and across Southern New England. If the 18Z NAM model track were to verify, that generally places our Northern, and Central areas in a better spot for the most precipitation. At this time though I am sticking with a slightly further Southeast track.

         What this means is precipitation will form across the region and will likely be heaviest across Central, and Southern Vermont. Right now it appears most precipitation should fall in the form of a heavy wet snow, but some sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain could mix in, especially across the Champlain Valley, and far Southern Vermont. At this point the potential exists for around 6 inches of snow across Central, and Southern Vermont, with locally higher amounts across Southern Vermont. It appears that the lightest amounts will occur across far Northern areas, based on current indications. If more snow is expected, and more confidence can be obtained, then a Winter Storm Watch may be needed for Southern Vermont. Stay tuned for further updates.

Wintry Mix & Wind To Continue Overnight

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Currently, rain showers are falling across much of the area, with some isolated snow, sleet, and freezing rain showers across Northeastern Vermont, where cold air is holding in place.

         Also of concern tonight is the potential for gusty winds across the western slopes of the green mountains. Sustained southeast winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts in the 45-55MPH range are occurring along the western slopes of the green mountains. Isolated and very localized gusts to 60MPH are possible, especially in areas such as Rutland, Cambridge, Huntington, and Bennington.

         With all the above in mind, I have cancelled the previous Freezing Rain Advisory, as temperatures have warmed up above freezing in many locations, except the mountain valleys in Orleans County in the Northeast Kingdom and placed a Winter Weather Advisory for Orleans county only, due to the threat of some accumulating wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Total snow, and sleet accumulations of 1-2 inches are likely, with an ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch.

         I have also issued a Wind Advisory for the Western slopes of the green mountains. For the above mentioned sustained winds of 20-30MPH with gusts in the 45-55MPH range.

         As far as OFFICIAL alerts go, at this time there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from the National Weather Service for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, and Western Rutland County for light accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. There is NO wind advisory in effect from the National Weather Service.

Freezing Rain To Hamper After-Holiday Travel Saturday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Conditions are becoming more likely for some freezing rain, some rather significant late tonight into Saturday afternoon. The most significant icing should occur outside of our area, in the St. Lawrence Valley, but conditions are being monitored for any changes. Also strong winds with gusts up to 60MPH are possible along the western slope communities of the Green mountains. If icing to near a quarter inch, and high winds become likely, then an Ice Storm Warning may be issued for these areas, even though they don't meet ice storm warning criteria of a half inch of greater. The reason being, its going to be the day after Christmas, and the combination of up to a quarter inch of ice, and strong winds, would result in trees, and power lines coming down, easier then if there was no wind. So this COULD potentially turn into a high impact event. At this time though, I will play it down some, and say that this will be a moderate impact event, with some travel difficulties, and the potential for some isolated power outages.

         Mixed precipitation is expected to start late tonight, initially mixing with sleet, and perhaps some snow, only briefly. The snow and sleet, will change to freezing rain, and then to rain in the Champlain Valley, by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. Freezing rain should linger across eastern Vermont for a few more hours, then in the Champlain Valley before changing to all rain. Across the extreme northern Champlain Valley, conditions will be monitored closely for a northerly, or northeasterly drainage flow from Canada, which could result in more ice then currently expected. At this time though Ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch are expected across the area. So thus I have issued a Freezing Rain Advisory. Also has mentioned above southeast gap winds will hit the western slopes, and cause potential wind gusts to 60MPH as well, so I have thus issued a High Wind Watch for that potential. Stay tuned for further updates.

         There are currently no OFFICIAL alerts from the National Weather Service across our area. There is however a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley for the potential of significant amounts of ice.

Wintry Mix Overnight Tonight

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Across the region right now, a variety of precipitation is falling, currently though, it seems that much of the precipitation that is falling is frozen as of right now. Overnight though things should change to mainly all rain in the Champlain Valley, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected elsewhere. Many areas may change over to mainly rain by tomorrow morning. However, if you are planning on traveling overnight tonight or early tomorrow morning, use caution as roads could be icy in spots. Especially outside the Champlain Valley.

         As of right now, the mixed precipitation does not appear to be significant enough to warrant any type of Winter Weather Alert, however I will continue to monitor conditions for the potential of a Freezing Rain or Winter Weather Advisory for areas outside of the Champlain Valley.

         The National Weather Service has no official alerts in effect at this time.

Significant Winter Storm For Tomorrow/ Localized Blizzard Conditions Possible

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A significant Winter Storm is just a few hours away from starting. Currently doppler radar is indicating light snow pushing as far north as the VT/MA border. Much of this front edge of precipitation is not actually making it to the ground but there is isolated light snow/ flurries falling in that area. This area of snow will continue to rapidly move north and east, and overspread the entire area by 4AM.
         Shortly after the onset of snow, the snow should become moderate to occasionaly very heavy. The heaviest snow should fall across our region between 6AM and 10AM. Snowfall rates during that time frame should reach an inch per hour, with localized higher snowfall rates.
         Next concern is winds across the region, as a very tight pressure gradient sets up between the low pressure over the Great Lakes region, and a high pressure area over the Canadian Maritimes. Strong southeast winds will be felt by everyone, but the strongest of these winds will be felt along the western slopes of the green mountains, as these southeast winds, are favorable for funneling through the mountain gaps, and passes along the western slopes. This will result in winds in the 30-40MPH range with gusts up to 60MPH for Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, and Western Addison Counties, some areas in far Western Lamoille, and far Western Washington Counties will also expierience these winds. In the most favored gap locations, isolated wind gusts to 70MPH are possible. Across the remainder of Washington, and Lamoille Counties, sustained winds of 20-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH are possible. Due to the strong winds, and high snowfall rates, I feel that a Blizzard Warning is suitable for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. I have a Blizzard Warning in effect for Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, Lamoille, and Washington Counties in Vermont. An official Blizzard is when Heavy Falling, and/ or Blowing snow is occuring with visbilities reduced to a quarter mile or less, with winds sustained at or frequently gusting to 35MPH for 3 consecutive hours or more. I feel this potential is high for the above mentioned areas.
         Now time to talk about snowfall totals. Things are tricky with the snowfall totals, due to the fact towards the end of the heaviest precipitation Wednesday mid-morning to early afternoon, a dry slot, and warmer air aloft will be rapidly moving in our direction. At this time though, I feel snowfall rates will be heavy enough for much of the event to result in snowfall accumulations of 3-6 inches in the Champlain Valley. 3-6 inches along the Western slopes of the Green mountains, due to shadowing from the strong southeasterly winds. And 6-12 inches for the remainder of Vermont. Locally higher amounts could be possible on Southeast facing slopes.
         I want to take the time now, to inform everyone that travel is going to become extremely hazardous for the morning commute. If you must tavel use extreme caution as snowfall rates will be high, and combined with the wind, will result in low visibilities. Please drive very carefully, and use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing Winter Storm.