Blockbuster Nor'easter Comes To an End

STORM OVERVIEW
         About 10 days prior to the storm, long range weather models saw the potential for a major winter storm across the eastern portions of the United States, however the expected outcome across the Northeast wouldn't be known until just hours before the storm would arrive.

         In the end three things had to happen in order for this storm to occur. Low pressure that had tracked across the deep south bringing heavy snow, and damage ice accumulations would have to meet just at the right time with an upper level low coming out of Canada into the midwest states to produce an explosive intensification of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast.

         About 48 hours before the event, 2 near term models out of about a dozen weather models altogether began to indicate a shift in the track of this explosive low pressure system, bringing it substantially closer to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, as well as being loaded with far more moisture. Unfortunately many forecasters refused to believe these two models, and discounted them as being "Western Outliers". Many forecasts went out indicating a big storm from Philly to Boston, with little to nearly no snow across Northern/ Upstate New York, and New England. Initial forecasts depending on which network you follow were forecasting 6-12 inches from NYC to Boston with locally higher amounts to near 18 inches. These forecast were being based of the longer term global models, instead of paying close attention to the near term hi-res models. Weather enthusiasts from Champlain Valley Weather and SnoBoy weather had already been forecasting for a significant storm to impact much of New England, including Northern New England, and based their forecasts on these near term models.

         Once the low pressure system out of the deep south rounded Cape Hatteras and took a much further jog to the west was when weather services finally decided to change there tune. However weather enthusiasts from both Champlain Valley Weather and SnoBoy Weather had not much to change, as their forecasts were already set, as they saw the danger coming far in advance.

         Tuesday evening it was apparent that the extremely energetic upper level low was trying to grab the surface low and pull it back towards the Mid-Atlantic coast, as well as the fact the upper level low wasn't ready to weaken yet. Overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning Heavy snow overspread southern New England and snowfall rates reached as high as 4 inches per hour across portions of the region. During this time frame the upper level low finally transferred energy to the coastal low, and explosive intensification occurred, well into New England. The surface low ended up tracking just inside of Cape Cod. This resulted in heavy snows pushing much further north into northern New England, which Champlain Valley Weather, and SnoBoy weather had eluded to well in advance. Other forecast services were in a rush to rapidly change their forecasts, however it wouldn't be until late morning that portions of Northern New England would finally be placed under the Winter Alerts they should have been under. Unfortunately this was already after the storm started, and area schools and businesses to the north, were well in session.

         Snow fell heavily all day Wednesday, and even lasted into Tursday across the Champlain valley, and northern green mountains. The result was an extremely treacherous Wednesday evening commute, and very dangerous travel for area schools transportation. In the end snow totals reached 6-10 inches across extreme northern Vermont with 10-18 inches across much of the rest of Vermont to 2-3 feet across portions of Southern Vermont, and Central New England, with a max amount of over 40 inches in Western Massachusetts. This storm will be remembered for years to come, and is well classified as being a Blockbuster Nor'easter for its massive snow totals, further western track, and Blizzard conditions across Southeastern New England.

         A special thanks goes out to all my viewers and to those who reported there snow totals and weather conditions to me. A special thanks goes out to all the members of Champlain Valley Weather's Storm Chase Branch - Franklin County Storm Chasers. A special thanks also goes to SnoBoy weather's top man (VT)David Claghorn for the amazing collaboration on this winter event, and to all SnoBoy's members for there great reports from the West Coast to the Mid Atlantic to New England! I would like to urge anyone who has snow totals they want to report to me, please feel free to send them in at anytime. I want to make sure I have the most accurate snowfall data as possible. Also feel free if your a member of facebook to search "SnoBoy Weather" and fan them, for great weather updates across the region. Thanks again to everyone.

Nor'easter To Impact Parts Of The Region Tuesday Into Wednesday

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the southern half of Vermont for 12-18 inches of snow by Wednesday Evening. The Warning is in effect from 5PM Tuesday until 5PM Wednesday.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central Vermont for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow. The Warning is in effect from 5PM Tuesday until 5PM Wednesday.

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National Weather Service Alerts:
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington VT, has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Windsor, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont for the potential of 5-10 inches of snow by Wednesday Evening.

         -The National Weather Service in Albany NY, has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for the potential of 7 or more inches of snow by Wednesday Evening.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         Two areas of energy are forecasted to merge together near the Delmarva peninsula to spawn a single low pressure system that will push Northeast. The exact track of the low pressure system is still not known. Either way snow will develop across Southern Vermont by later Tuesday.

SNOW
         As been the case much of this winter, another difficult storm system to predict. The storm is expected to for near the Delmarva, and either move North-Northeast, or Due Northeast. If the storm decides to pass inside Cape Cod, then all of VT will likely see significant snowfall. If the storm passes to the East of Cape Cod then impacts will remain across southern Vermont. At this point though it does appear that Southern Vermont is in the threat for heavy snow with either track. So I have places the Southern half of Vermont under a Winter Storm Warning for 12-18 inches of snow. A little less snow is possible across Western Rutland County, and in the Connecticut River valley, where only 6-12 inches is likely at this time. With the uncertainty remaining I have only places Central Vermont under a Watch for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow. Model trends, radar, and surface obs will be key players to watch, to determine the exact track of the low pressure center, and its associated snowfall. This storm may be very similar to the Post Christmas Day Storm across our area, in terms of snowfall. While winds will be occasionally gusty, Blizzard conditions are not likely at this time. Please stay tuned to Champlain Valley Weather for further updates on this developing winter storm.

Nor'easter To Effect Southern Vermont

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A Strong Nor'easter developing off the Delmarva Peninsula later tonight, will result in moderate snow accumulations across portions of Vermont Wednesday. Snow will develop tomorrow morning and become moderate to occasionally heavy at times. Total snow accumulations by Wednesday night will range from 3-6 inches across Southern Vermont, with 1-3 inches across Central Vermont, and only a Trace to perhaps an inch for the remainder of the area. Isolated higher amounts of up to 8 or 9 inches could occur across portions of the Southern Green mountains. I would like to urge, that although weather models are converging on a solution, there is still some discrepancies in the overall track. If the storm trends further north, then a Winter Storm Warning may be required for Southern Vermont, and a Winter Weather Advisory possible for areas further North of the current Advisory. Stay tuned for further updates.

Nor'easter To Impact The Region Sunday Night Into Monday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Southern, VT for the potential of 7 or more inches of snow, along with the potential for up to a half inch of ice accumulation.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Bennington, Windham, Windsor, and Western Rutland Counties in Southern Vermont, for the potential of 6-9 inches of Snow, with up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation.

         Currently a 1004mb low North of the Mouth of the Mississippi river continues to push North to North-Northeast. Substantial amounts of moisture accompany this system, as it has originated from the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure system will continue on a North-Northeast motion up to around the Southern portions of West Virginia, where it will then transfer its energy to a new low pressure center that will form near the Delmarva Peninsula, then move northeast, and by the eastern side of Cape Cod.

         This track will allow precipitation to develop across southern Vermont by late Sunday afternoon, and then slowly intensify into the evening hours. The onset of precipitation may fall in the form of Rain or Freezing Rain, but quickly change to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and eventual all snow my the evening hours. Snow could be heavy at times overnight Sunday Night into Monday morning. Precipitation should gradual tapper off by Monday afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations at this point appear to range from 3-6 inches in the Connecticut River Valley in Southern Vermont, and the Northwestern Potions of Rutland County to 6-9 inches across much of Windsor, Windham, Bennington, and Western Rutland Counties, with localized higher amounts in the higher elevations of the Southern Green mountains. For Central Vermont, and portions of Northern New York 1-3 inches can be expected, with only a Trace to 1 inch across the extreme Northern portions of Vermont, and Northern New York.

         I would like to urge that models have been trending further to the Southeast since last night. So it appears the exact track and strength is still not known. Any deviations North or South in the track could have a large impact on how much snow falls, and where. Stay tuned for further updates.

UPDATE 2: Black Friday Nor'easter

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         First and foremost I would like to wish everyone a happy thanksgiving, and I hope everyone's day went well. Those who have to travel home tomorrow maybe instore for some nasty weather.

         Currently radar shows an area of light to moderate rain stretching from central and western new york, down to the eastern half of North Carolina. Also radar is indicating rain rapidly developing over long island New York, spreading up into Southern New England. Also to mention 3 hour pressure falls off the Southern New England coast are impressive, showing that the pressure in that area is falling at a rate of 10 millibars every 3 hours. Or 3.33 millibars an hour!!!

         The low pressure center should continue to rapidly intensify and begin to move more north, and perhaps even north-northwest, and into the gulf of Maine by tomorrow. Rain should develop across our region between 5AM and 7AM. Rain will become steadier throughout the day Friday, and mix with snow towards evening at the lower elevations, and mix with snow by afternoon in the higher elevations. Things should change over to all snow overnight Friday, with all snow in the higher elevations by Friday evening. Total snow accumulations will range from a Trace to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley, and elevations below 800 feet, with 3-6 inches likely above 800 feet. Locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches is possible in areas such as Jay Peak, and Mt. Mansfield. Winds will also increase Friday afternoon into the 15-30MPH with gusts up to 50MPH, with higher elevations possibly seeing localized gusts up to 55MPH. Winds will gradually diminish by Saturday evening. With all of the above in mind, I have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, and point east, for 3-6 inches of snow accumulations by Saturday afternoon. I have also issued a Wind advisory for the entire region for the above mentioned winds. I want to urge though, that this forecast is still very uncertain, and is highly dependent upon the final track and strength of the low pressure system. If things trend slightly colder then more snow may occur resulting in a Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations, and perhaps a Winter Weather Advisory for the lower elevations. Also if the system strengthens a little more then currently predicted, then a High Wind Warning may be needed for the Western slopes of the green mountains and points east. At this time there is NO OFFICIAL ALERTS issued by the National Weather Service. Stay tuned for further updates.

UPDATE: Black Friday Nor'easter

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Well here we are, just about 45 minutes away from turkey day, models have come into somewhat better agreement but still struggle on some very important details for the upcoming storm for late Thursday night through Saturday night (majority of it being on black Friday). The only model left that doesn't agree with the rest, is the NAM model. Unfortunately this storm will likely be one of those good old "wait and see" type storms.

         The GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and JMA models all want to form a low pressure center just southeast of South Carolina, and bring it northeast and up the coast, and blow it up (central pressure down into the 976-984 range) either in the gulf of Maine or over the State of Maine, as it phases with the northern jet stream. The NAM model wants to form a low pressure center in the same area, but move it out to sea, and towards the Canadian maritimes, and then reform back west over downeast Maine. At this point this model is being called an outlier, but just remember, outliers can come true, and if the current run of the NAM comes true then it would mean much less precipitation across our area, although slightly cooler. Regardless which model solution is correct, temperatures look marginal for significant snowfall, it could go either way, significant rain or significant snow. The best chances for significant accumulating snow will be in the higher elevations.

         What to expect at lower elevations. Rain showers developing Thursday night, and becoming more steady into the day Friday. Some snow could mix in, especially towards Friday evening as colder air works in aloft. By Friday night rain and snow may change over to all snow for a time, and the intensity will gradual weaken into Saturday morning. Total snowfall accumulations by Saturday afternoon will range from a Trace to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley, and other lower elevations below 800 to 1000 feet. Winds will also be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 30MPH Friday into Saturday.

         What to expect in the higher elevations. Rain showers developing Thursday night, and mixing with, and changing to all snow by Friday evening, with an increase in intensity throughout the day Friday. Snow will continue, and gradual diminish into the day Saturday. Upslope snow showers will likely linger into as late as Sunday. Total snow accumulations by Saturday afternoon will range from 3-6 inches above 1000 feet. Locally higher amounts are possible in favored upslope areas. Winds will also be increasing into the 15-25MPH range with gusts up to 40MPH Friday into Saturday.

         At this time, if this current scenario plays out then Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for the higher elevations. I do want to remind you though precipitation type is still uncertain. If things trend slightly cooler then more snow could be expected leading to possible Warnings for the higher elevations and Advisories for the lower elevations. If things trend a little warmer, then no Advisories or Warnings will be needed, and if the latest NAM model were to come true, then light measurable snowfall would be held to far Northeastern Vermont at best. Also wind alerts may be needed if stronger winds work into the area. Stay tuned for further updates.

Potential "Black Friday" Winter Storm

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         As I eluded to in the previous post, the possibility exists for a potential winter storm thanksgiving night into Friday night. Details are slowly beginning to unfold, and it now appears this storm will occur Friday into Saturday. Major questions still exists as to whether or not, significant snow will fall or not. Right now models are trying to converge on a solution, (some rather suspect looking) on a low pressure center forming along the mid-atlantic coast, and either moving up the coast into eastern new england, or moving into western New England. Well as you know the track between western or eastern New England makes a VERY BIG difference as to what happens across our region.

         As of right now conditions are marginal for measurable snowfall in the Champlain Valley, and other lower elevations under 1000 feet. With increasingly greater chances as you go higher in elevation. Right now I am not going to make a map or set any type of snowfall accumulation in stone, but if we go with what the models are showing now, then snowfall accumulations of up to 2 inches could be possible in the Champlain Valley, and other elevations below 1000 feet by Saturday evening. For elevations between 1000-1500 feet snow accumulations of 2-5 inches is possible, and elevations above 1500 feet snow accumulations of 4-8 inches is possible with locally higher amounts in the favored northwest upslope regions of the Northern Adirondacks, and Northern Green mountains. Perhaps Jay peak, could pull off 10-12 inches if things pan out just right. At this time though things are still very uncertain and as I said, this is not set in stone just yet, this is the potential snowfall if the current models prove to be correct. I will know more in the days ahead. Stay tuned.