Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
Well here we are, just about 45 minutes away from turkey day, models have come into somewhat better agreement but still struggle on some very important details for the upcoming storm for late Thursday night through Saturday night (majority of it being on black Friday). The only model left that doesn't agree with the rest, is the NAM model. Unfortunately this storm will likely be one of those good old "wait and see" type storms.
The GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and JMA models all want to form a low pressure center just southeast of South Carolina, and bring it northeast and up the coast, and blow it up (central pressure down into the 976-984 range) either in the gulf of Maine or over the State of Maine, as it phases with the northern jet stream. The NAM model wants to form a low pressure center in the same area, but move it out to sea, and towards the Canadian maritimes, and then reform back west over downeast Maine. At this point this model is being called an outlier, but just remember, outliers can come true, and if the current run of the NAM comes true then it would mean much less precipitation across our area, although slightly cooler. Regardless which model solution is correct, temperatures look marginal for significant snowfall, it could go either way, significant rain or significant snow. The best chances for significant accumulating snow will be in the higher elevations.
What to expect at lower elevations. Rain showers developing Thursday night, and becoming more steady into the day Friday. Some snow could mix in, especially towards Friday evening as colder air works in aloft. By Friday night rain and snow may change over to all snow for a time, and the intensity will gradual weaken into Saturday morning. Total snowfall accumulations by Saturday afternoon will range from a Trace to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley, and other lower elevations below 800 to 1000 feet. Winds will also be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 30MPH Friday into Saturday.
What to expect in the higher elevations. Rain showers developing Thursday night, and mixing with, and changing to all snow by Friday evening, with an increase in intensity throughout the day Friday. Snow will continue, and gradual diminish into the day Saturday. Upslope snow showers will likely linger into as late as Sunday. Total snow accumulations by Saturday afternoon will range from 3-6 inches above 1000 feet. Locally higher amounts are possible in favored upslope areas. Winds will also be increasing into the 15-25MPH range with gusts up to 40MPH Friday into Saturday.
At this time, if this current scenario plays out then Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for the higher elevations. I do want to remind you though precipitation type is still uncertain. If things trend slightly cooler then more snow could be expected leading to possible Warnings for the higher elevations and Advisories for the lower elevations. If things trend a little warmer, then no Advisories or Warnings will be needed, and if the latest NAM model were to come true, then light measurable snowfall would be held to far Northeastern Vermont at best. Also wind alerts may be needed if stronger winds work into the area. Stay tuned for further updates.
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