UPDATE 2: Black Friday Nor'easter

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         First and foremost I would like to wish everyone a happy thanksgiving, and I hope everyone's day went well. Those who have to travel home tomorrow maybe instore for some nasty weather.

         Currently radar shows an area of light to moderate rain stretching from central and western new york, down to the eastern half of North Carolina. Also radar is indicating rain rapidly developing over long island New York, spreading up into Southern New England. Also to mention 3 hour pressure falls off the Southern New England coast are impressive, showing that the pressure in that area is falling at a rate of 10 millibars every 3 hours. Or 3.33 millibars an hour!!!

         The low pressure center should continue to rapidly intensify and begin to move more north, and perhaps even north-northwest, and into the gulf of Maine by tomorrow. Rain should develop across our region between 5AM and 7AM. Rain will become steadier throughout the day Friday, and mix with snow towards evening at the lower elevations, and mix with snow by afternoon in the higher elevations. Things should change over to all snow overnight Friday, with all snow in the higher elevations by Friday evening. Total snow accumulations will range from a Trace to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley, and elevations below 800 feet, with 3-6 inches likely above 800 feet. Locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches is possible in areas such as Jay Peak, and Mt. Mansfield. Winds will also increase Friday afternoon into the 15-30MPH with gusts up to 50MPH, with higher elevations possibly seeing localized gusts up to 55MPH. Winds will gradually diminish by Saturday evening. With all of the above in mind, I have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, and point east, for 3-6 inches of snow accumulations by Saturday afternoon. I have also issued a Wind advisory for the entire region for the above mentioned winds. I want to urge though, that this forecast is still very uncertain, and is highly dependent upon the final track and strength of the low pressure system. If things trend slightly colder then more snow may occur resulting in a Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations, and perhaps a Winter Weather Advisory for the lower elevations. Also if the system strengthens a little more then currently predicted, then a High Wind Warning may be needed for the Western slopes of the green mountains and points east. At this time there is NO OFFICIAL ALERTS issued by the National Weather Service. Stay tuned for further updates.