December 8, 2009

Significant Winter Storm For Tomorrow/ Localized Blizzard Conditions Possible







Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A significant Winter Storm is just a few hours away from starting. Currently doppler radar is indicating light snow pushing as far north as the VT/MA border. Much of this front edge of precipitation is not actually making it to the ground but there is isolated light snow/ flurries falling in that area. This area of snow will continue to rapidly move north and east, and overspread the entire area by 4AM.
         Shortly after the onset of snow, the snow should become moderate to occasionaly very heavy. The heaviest snow should fall across our region between 6AM and 10AM. Snowfall rates during that time frame should reach an inch per hour, with localized higher snowfall rates.
         Next concern is winds across the region, as a very tight pressure gradient sets up between the low pressure over the Great Lakes region, and a high pressure area over the Canadian Maritimes. Strong southeast winds will be felt by everyone, but the strongest of these winds will be felt along the western slopes of the green mountains, as these southeast winds, are favorable for funneling through the mountain gaps, and passes along the western slopes. This will result in winds in the 30-40MPH range with gusts up to 60MPH for Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, and Western Addison Counties, some areas in far Western Lamoille, and far Western Washington Counties will also expierience these winds. In the most favored gap locations, isolated wind gusts to 70MPH are possible. Across the remainder of Washington, and Lamoille Counties, sustained winds of 20-30MPH with gusts to 50MPH are possible. Due to the strong winds, and high snowfall rates, I feel that a Blizzard Warning is suitable for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. I have a Blizzard Warning in effect for Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, Lamoille, and Washington Counties in Vermont. An official Blizzard is when Heavy Falling, and/ or Blowing snow is occuring with visbilities reduced to a quarter mile or less, with winds sustained at or frequently gusting to 35MPH for 3 consecutive hours or more. I feel this potential is high for the above mentioned areas.
         Now time to talk about snowfall totals. Things are tricky with the snowfall totals, due to the fact towards the end of the heaviest precipitation Wednesday mid-morning to early afternoon, a dry slot, and warmer air aloft will be rapidly moving in our direction. At this time though, I feel snowfall rates will be heavy enough for much of the event to result in snowfall accumulations of 3-6 inches in the Champlain Valley. 3-6 inches along the Western slopes of the Green mountains, due to shadowing from the strong southeasterly winds. And 6-12 inches for the remainder of Vermont. Locally higher amounts could be possible on Southeast facing slopes.
         I want to take the time now, to inform everyone that travel is going to become extremely hazardous for the morning commute. If you must tavel use extreme caution as snowfall rates will be high, and combined with the wind, will result in low visibilities. Please drive very carefully, and use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing Winter Storm.

1 comment:

Melissa I. said...

Interesting... glad i read this!!