STORM OVERVIEW
About 10 days prior to the storm, long range weather models saw the potential for a major winter storm across the eastern portions of the United States, however the expected outcome across the Northeast wouldn't be known until just hours before the storm would arrive.
In the end three things had to happen in order for this storm to occur. Low pressure that had tracked across the deep south bringing heavy snow, and damage ice accumulations would have to meet just at the right time with an upper level low coming out of Canada into the midwest states to produce an explosive intensification of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast.
About 48 hours before the event, 2 near term models out of about a dozen weather models altogether began to indicate a shift in the track of this explosive low pressure system, bringing it substantially closer to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, as well as being loaded with far more moisture. Unfortunately many forecasters refused to believe these two models, and discounted them as being "Western Outliers". Many forecasts went out indicating a big storm from Philly to Boston, with little to nearly no snow across Northern/ Upstate New York, and New England. Initial forecasts depending on which network you follow were forecasting 6-12 inches from NYC to Boston with locally higher amounts to near 18 inches. These forecast were being based of the longer term global models, instead of paying close attention to the near term hi-res models. Weather enthusiasts from Champlain Valley Weather and SnoBoy weather had already been forecasting for a significant storm to impact much of New England, including Northern New England, and based their forecasts on these near term models.
Once the low pressure system out of the deep south rounded Cape Hatteras and took a much further jog to the west was when weather services finally decided to change there tune. However weather enthusiasts from both Champlain Valley Weather and SnoBoy Weather had not much to change, as their forecasts were already set, as they saw the danger coming far in advance.
Tuesday evening it was apparent that the extremely energetic upper level low was trying to grab the surface low and pull it back towards the Mid-Atlantic coast, as well as the fact the upper level low wasn't ready to weaken yet. Overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning Heavy snow overspread southern New England and snowfall rates reached as high as 4 inches per hour across portions of the region. During this time frame the upper level low finally transferred energy to the coastal low, and explosive intensification occurred, well into New England. The surface low ended up tracking just inside of Cape Cod. This resulted in heavy snows pushing much further north into northern New England, which Champlain Valley Weather, and SnoBoy weather had eluded to well in advance. Other forecast services were in a rush to rapidly change their forecasts, however it wouldn't be until late morning that portions of Northern New England would finally be placed under the Winter Alerts they should have been under. Unfortunately this was already after the storm started, and area schools and businesses to the north, were well in session.
Snow fell heavily all day Wednesday, and even lasted into Tursday across the Champlain valley, and northern green mountains. The result was an extremely treacherous Wednesday evening commute, and very dangerous travel for area schools transportation. In the end snow totals reached 6-10 inches across extreme northern Vermont with 10-18 inches across much of the rest of Vermont to 2-3 feet across portions of Southern Vermont, and Central New England, with a max amount of over 40 inches in Western Massachusetts. This storm will be remembered for years to come, and is well classified as being a Blockbuster Nor'easter for its massive snow totals, further western track, and Blizzard conditions across Southeastern New England.
A special thanks goes out to all my viewers and to those who reported there snow totals and weather conditions to me. A special thanks goes out to all the members of Champlain Valley Weather's Storm Chase Branch - Franklin County Storm Chasers. A special thanks also goes to SnoBoy weather's top man (VT)David Claghorn for the amazing collaboration on this winter event, and to all SnoBoy's members for there great reports from the West Coast to the Mid Atlantic to New England! I would like to urge anyone who has snow totals they want to report to me, please feel free to send them in at anytime. I want to make sure I have the most accurate snowfall data as possible. Also feel free if your a member of facebook to search "SnoBoy Weather" and fan them, for great weather updates across the region. Thanks again to everyone.
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