Potential MLK Jr Day Winter Storm

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         I have been holding off on discussing this storm for a while now, mainly due to the fact models have been fairly consistent on a southern sliding storm. But after many days of model solutions, they have drifted the storm from being a southern slider, to a New England special. At this time, its still somewhat uncertain the final track and strength of this system, but at current indications, this system will likely be a more moderate to significant event, but not a major nor'easter. There is still plenty of time though, and I will keep everyone updated as things continue to unfold.

         Currently, a moisture laden 1007mb low pressure system has formed over the Western gulf of Mexico. I am becoming concerned that this system may become stronger then currently expected while over the relatively warm waters of the gulf of Mexico, which could change things a bit. But at this time I will leave it as is. This low pressure system should track Northeast, and the North up into Alabama, although the latest model trends have it even further west, and tracking up into the Mississippi River Valley. The low will then continue pushing North-Northeast and up to around the southern end of West Virginia, before it completely transfers its energy over a new coastal low, that will form off the New Jersey Coast. This low will then travel northeast, and over Cape cod, and then continue to track east-northeast and out to sea. This is a bit further south then the 18Z NAM model, which tracks it over Long Island and across Southern New England. If the 18Z NAM model track were to verify, that generally places our Northern, and Central areas in a better spot for the most precipitation. At this time though I am sticking with a slightly further Southeast track.

         What this means is precipitation will form across the region and will likely be heaviest across Central, and Southern Vermont. Right now it appears most precipitation should fall in the form of a heavy wet snow, but some sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain could mix in, especially across the Champlain Valley, and far Southern Vermont. At this point the potential exists for around 6 inches of snow across Central, and Southern Vermont, with locally higher amounts across Southern Vermont. It appears that the lightest amounts will occur across far Northern areas, based on current indications. If more snow is expected, and more confidence can be obtained, then a Winter Storm Watch may be needed for Southern Vermont. Stay tuned for further updates.