3 Part Storm System To Bring Significant Snow To The Region This Week

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Everything regarding the upcoming storm remains complicated, but with the first part of the storm set to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday night, I have had to make some decisions, although confidence is only moderate at this time.


Storm Part 1:
Tonight into Tuesday Afternoon...
         Light snow showers are expected to develop tonight with the first part of this storm system. This part of the storm is expected to remain fairly insignificant. Total snow accumulations from Tonight into Tuesday afternoon will range from T-1 inches in the Valley locations to 1-3 inches for the higher elevations.


Storm Part 2:
Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night...
         I have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area, for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Snow will increase in intensity overnight Tuesday and fall moderate to occasional heavy late afternoon Wednesday into Wednesday night before slowly lightening up. Snow totals by late Wednesday night will range from 6-10 inches for the Valley's and 10-15 inches for the higher elevations, and favored upslope regions, if temps happen to warm up then snow may mix with sleet or rain especially in valley locations and if this were to occur then valley locations may see significantly less then 6-10 inches of snow. Now if the precipitation remains all snow, then the snow will be wet and heavy with a 10:1 ratio likely, especially for the lower elevations. These amounts of wet and heavy snow will likely cause tress to be weighed down as well as power lines.


Storm Part 3:
Thursday into Friday Night...
         Light snow will be ongoing accumulating an additional 1-2 inches across the area before this next and likely most significant portion of the system takes over, in this time frame the most significant snowfall of the entire week will likely occur. A Winter storm watch may be required for this portions of the storm later in the week. Current indications suggest a low pressure system over the ocean will back towards new England and strengthen rapidly as it does so, this will result in significant amounts of moisture being thrown over our area. There is some question though as to how much warm air gets pulled in off the ocean and over our region. Current indications at this point though would lead to another 9-14 inches of snow region wide. Snow will tapper off overnight Friday night and only light snow showers will continue into Saturday night. The light snow showers will be capable of producing an additional 1-2 inches.

         Overall if these storm totals were to come to fruition, all together for the entire week snow totals would range from 14-25 inches in the Valley locations to 22-36 inches for the higher elevations. I would like to urge this is only on current forecasts, and confidence is only moderate at this time for the early stages of the storm, and then confidence decreases from there. This is an extremely difficult system to predict, especially with models not agreeing on a solution. Stay tuned for further updates.