Blizzard To Hit The Region

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for for portions of Central, and Southern Vermont for 12-20 inches of snow with winds in the 15-25MPH range with frequent gusts of 35-45MPH, some higher gusts could occur across extreme southern Vermont. The Watch is in effect until 2PM Monday.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of the Northern half of Vermont for 6-12 inches of snow, and winds of 10-20MPH with gusts up to 35MPH.

         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Champlain Valley for 3-6 inches of snow, and winds in the 10-20MPH range with isolated gusts up to 45MPH in the immediate Champlain Valley. All Warnings and Advisories are in effect from 6PM this evening until 3PM Monday Afternoon.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -The National Weather Service in Burlington VT, has issued a Winter Storm Warning for South Central, Central, and Northeast Vermont for 6-12 inches of snow across the northern portions of the Warning to 8-14 across the southern portions of the warning. Along with winds in the 15-25MPH range with gusts to 40MPH.

         -The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Champlain Valley, and portions of Northern Vermont for 3-7 inches of snow combined with winds in the 15-25MPH range with gusts to 40MPH.

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NWS Albany, NY:
         -The National Weather Service in Albany NY, has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Southern Vermont for 10-20 inches of snow with strong winds in the 15-25MPH range with gusts up to 40MPH.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         A rapdily strengthening low pressure system will continue to move up the coast, and into the Canadian maritimes by late Monday night. This will result in severe winter weather conditions across much of Vermont.

SNOWFALL
         Still a rather tough forecast as some models indicate heavy snow for all of Vermont, and some indicate less snow for the Northwest portions of Vermont. At this time I will split it middle of the road, and indicate Advisory criteria snow for Northwest Vermont, and the remainder of Vermont will be in Winter Storm/ Blizzard Warnings.

         Snow amounts look to be on the order of 3-6 inches in Northwest Vermont to 6-12 across Central and Northeast Vermont to 12-20 inches across Southern and South-Central Vermont. Although I am concerned that the entire Champlain Valley could see Warning criteria since strong North winds are expected to develop. This north flow commonly results in significant convergence. This will be monitored closely. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation.

UPDATE: Significant Storm To Bring Blizzard Conditions

1:06AM UPDATE...









         The National Weather Service in Burlington continues pretty much all the same alerts as the previous post, except they have dropped the Winter Storm Warning across Vermont, down to a Winter Weather Advisory. I have also changed the alerts some, and cancelled the Blizzard Waring for some areas. I have also decreased accumulations across some areas.


Previous post below...









Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations of South Central, Vermont, and The eastern slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains for the potential of 6-8 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for North Central, and Central Vermont, as Well as the St. Lawrence Valley for the potential of 4-6 inches of snow. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, The Southern Champlain Valley, and Eastern Vermont for strong to damaging winds of 25-35MPH with gusts 55-65MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Northern Adirondacks, and the St. Lawrence Valley for sustained winds of 20-30MPH with gusts up to 50MPH.

         The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Bennington, and Western Windham County for the potential of 6-16 inches of snow across the higher elevations. A High Wind Warning is in effect for all of Bennington, and Windham Counties for sustained winds of 30-40MPH with gusts 60-75MPH.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of Northern New York, and portions of Central, and Southern Vermont for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow across the higher elevations, with sustained winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 60-70MPH range, locally higher gusts could occur on east facing slopes, and in mountain gaps. A High Wind Warning is in effect for North Central, Central, and Northeastern Vermont for sustained winds of 25-40MPH with gusts in the 60-70MPH range, locally higher gusts could occur across east facing slopes and in mountains gaps. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Champlain Valley, for sustained winds of 15-25MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH range.

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A complex storm system is evolving across the area. Mainly light precipitation has been falling across the area, with mainly snow across Northern New York, and mainly rain across Vermont, with some isolated pockets of snow in the highest of elevations. After looking at new model data, and seeing this storm come together, I had to cancel the Blizzard Warning for much of Northern Vermont, and I have Canceled the Blizzard Watch for the Champlain Valley, and Southern Connecticut River Valley, these areas will see primarily rain, and/ or low precipitation amounts.

         For the areas under a Blizzard Warning, you can expect to see rain change over to snow, and be heavy at times over night. Winds will increase and be at there strongest during the overnight. By Friday evening snow will have accumulated 6-12 inches across elevations primarily above 1000 feet, the only exception to the elevation is the St. Lawrence Valley where just enough cold air should hold on and produce all snow. Across the Champlain Valley, and Areas no longer under a Winter alert can expect primarily light to occasionally moderate rain, there is a slight change of a heavier burst of rain, but that's not expected to be widespread. Precipitation amounts across these areas will likely be light due to shaddowing from the mountains. Snow accumulations will range from a Trace to 2 inches in the Valley's to up to 3 or 4 inches across the higher terrain, of North Central, and Northeast Vermont.

         Once again the winds will be the strongest during the overnight. I am very concerned for eastern facing slopes, and mountain gap locations. Low pressure already down to 987mb will continue to strengthen rapidly, and down into the 970-975mb range. Some models show this getting down to around 968mb. With a low that strong, I wouldn't be surprised if some wind gusts were well in excess of 70MPH, especially in favored gap locations, and eastern facing slopes. Heavy wet snow combined with winds this strong, spells major trouble. There still remains over 9,000 people without power across Vermont, from yesterdays storm. It would be strongly recommended to prepare for power outages, and wind damage if you live in an area under a High Wind Warning or a Blizzard Warning. Stay tuned for further updates on this dangerous developing weather situation.

Major East Coast Storm To Bring Blizzard Conditions

Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of Vermont, excluding the Champlain Valley, the Warning also covers Northern New York, excluding the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley's. The Winter storm warning is in effect for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow, with wind gusts up to 50MPH. The Winter storm warning for the previous storm still remains in effect for all the same areas as earlier.

       & Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of Vermont, and Northern New York, for 6-12 inches of snow, with sustained winds of 20-30MPH with gusts in the 50-55MPH range. A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for the Champlain Valley, and the extreme southern Connecticut River Valley in Vermont, for the potential of 3-6 inches of more of Snow accumulation combined with strong winds in the 15-25MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH range.


Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         As we get done one storm, we start another. This storm has been extremely hard to forecast, and the potential of busting on this is moderate. There are so many aspects to this storm to figure in to consideration, its tough. Infact there has been no winter storm like this, as far as track and strength go, in the past 30 years to compare it too. The National Weather Service did a search on the CIPS analog system, and there were no matches for the past 30 years. While yes, I am sure there has been a storm similar to this since records began, there is no detailed data to help with the forecast. Therefor, we are going into somewhat uncharted territory.

         Now while there is no winter storm comparison for this type of track and strength of a storm in recent years, we can still look back to a few things for help. The storm position will result in a easterly wind across the area. As we know, with an easterly flow, the mountains block (shadow) precipitation from the Valley's, so areas such as the Champlain Valley, and the Connecticut River Valley, tend to be warmer, and drier, but the eastern slopes of the green mountains tend to be cooler and wetter, due to upslope dynamics. We also know easterly winds tend to funnel through the mountain gaps and produce very strong to damaging winds, along east facing slopes, but of most significance the western slopes of the green mountains.

         Now with the above known, temperature problems still exist, with a storm track such as this, warm air will wrap up and around the east side and over towards the north. This will likely bring in warm Atlantic moisture, which could result in warm valley temperatures and not much snow, especially if significant downsloping occurs, which is very possible. But to complicate the matter more, winds may have just enough of a Northerly component across the Champlain Valley, that temps could remain cooler, and the downsloping would not be as pronounced.

         So at this time, this is what I am thinking, rain/snow mix will develop tonight and become potentially heavy tomorrow late afternoon or early evening. By Friday afternoon, total snow accumulations look at this current moment, 6-12 inches for the higher elevations, and 3-6 inches in the valley locations. For the Champlain Valley its tough, at this point I am calling for 3-6 inches, but if a northerly wind component can establish itself, and have good effect then we may end up with more snow. If there is not much of a northerly wind component, then we may see much less then 3-6 inches. With that said, the Valley locations remain under a Watch, while the Higher elevations are under a Warning. With these being Blizzard alerts, that means yes, winds will be a factor. Winds of 20-30MPH with gusts in the 50-55MPH range can be expected across the higher elevations, and western slopes especially. The Valley locations will see sustained winds of 15-25MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH range. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of snow, especially across the higher elevations. As things become more certain, then a Blizzard Warning or Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for the Champlain Valley, and Southern Connecticut River Valley. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.

UPDATE 2: Blizzard To Strike The Region

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         I just wanted to post a quick update, as observations and snow totals require me to update things. Of most significance is how much snow has fallen so far. Across the Northern Champlain Valley, and much of the Western Champlain Valley 4-7 inches of Snow has fallen through the overnight hours, across the Southern Champlain Valley 4-10 inches of snow has fallen. While across the Central Champlain Valley, and the Western slopes of the Green mountains, 10-19 inches of snow has fallen so far. Its also quite impressive to note that snow ratios have been very high, up around 35:1 on average. Meaning 35 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. So if this was a rainstorm it would be 1 inch of rain.

         Radar observations show that snow is continuing to move from Northeast, to Southwest. Snow will continue across much of the area, but should be heaviest across the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. The heavier snow that has been occurring all night in the Central Champlain Valley should start to lighten up some. Total snowfall accumulations by early Monday morning will be 24 or more inches across the Central Champlain Valley, and the Western slopes of the Green mountains in portions of Chittenden, and Lamoille Counties, to 18-24 inches across the rest of the Central, and Southern Champlain Valley, and the remainder of the Western slopes of the Green mountains. With 12-18 inches in portions of the Northern, and Southern Champlain Valley, and Central Washington, and Western Orleans Counties, with 6-12 inches across the Western Champlain Valley, and the Extreme Northern Champlain Valley, in Northwestern Franklin, and Northern Grand Isle Counties, and 6-12 inches across Eastern Orleans, and far Eastern Washington Counties. All alerts remain the same as in the previous post, so please check that earlier post for alert details. Stay tuned for any further updates.

UPDATE: Blizzard To Strike The Region

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         The National Weather Service in Burlington, continues a Winter Storm Warning for the area, for 8-14 inches, with 12-18 for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, with locally higher amounts, along with wind gusts up to 40MPH region wide.

         Champlain Valley's Suggested Alerts continue to be a Blizzard Warning for the entire region for 10-18 inches of snow across the area with 18 or more inches across the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, and the Central Champlain Valley, along with winds in the 15-25MPH range with gusts in the 40-50MPH range.

         Currently snow is falling across much of the area, with the heaviest snow falling along the Western slopes of the Northern Green mountains, and the Central Champlain Valley. These areas have received 4-8 inches so far, with locally higher amounts. Looking at radar trends, an area of dry air is moving into the Northeast Kingdom, and rapidly pushing west, this is concerning me the snowfall accumulations. If these dry air holds tight then accumulations will have to be decreased. For now though, I have increased the 18+ inch area, for the Central Champlain Valley, as Burlington Vermont has reported 11 inches at the National Weather Service Office, and numerous reports of around 8 inches have been reported along the Western Slopes already. So with this in mind, and with radar showing snow continuing nicely for the Central Champlain Valley, and the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, I will increase snow totals for the Central Champlain Valley, and leave everything else as is. Although, light I said with the dry air moving in, I am increasingly concerned, that less snow may occur across the Northern Champlain Valley.

         Just as an interesting note, the way the radar and snow accumulations have been playing out, it is similar to the snowstorm in March of 2006. This system was mentioned several post back for a similar storm that was expected to hit us. In the March 2006 storm the heaviest accumulations occurred across the Western slopes of the Green mountains and the Central Champlain Valley. While synoptically this system is different, the radar, and snow totals so far, are rather similar. Stay tuned for further updates.

Blizzard To Strike The Region

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Light snow is currently falling across the region, and will continue through tomorrow morning. It is tomorrow morning into the affternoon, that things will begin to change.

         Snow will intensify Saturday afternoon, and become moderate to occasionally heavy into Sunday night, as a low pressure system strengthens near Nova Scotia and backs into the gulf of Maine. This low pressure system is expected to strengthen significantly into the 965-974mb range, before it cuts off from the jet stream and slowly starts to weaken. Along with the falling snow, this strong system will produce winds of 15-30MPH with gusts in the 40-50MPH range. This will result in significant, and considerable blowing and drifting snow, along with whiteout conditions. Total snow accumulations will range from 12-18 inches across the area, with 18+ inches across the western slopes of the northern green mountains. Stay tuned for further updates.

Potential New Years Weekend Blizzard

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         A very tough system to forecast, remains just that. Tough. But models appear to be coming back into some type of agreement on the potential for a Blizzard across our area. Luckily, the brunt of the storm will occur after New Years day.

         Since I want to emphasize on this storm, I am going to refrain from a meteorological discussion, so this post does not end up too long. So with that in mind, what is expected to happen, is several pieces of energy are going to come together, out over the Atlantic ocean, and as this system rapidly strengthens, it will run into upper atmosphere blocking, which will allow this system to have a very rare track. This system while pushing towards Nova Scotia will, slow considerable, and begin to retrograde (move against the normal flow of the atmosphere) moving west-south west, and down into the Gulf of Maine.

         Before this system gets cut off from the jet stream, and being to retrograde, models have this system deepening into a very intense system. Models are showing this system to range from 960-970mb. The pressure equates to that of Cat. 2 - 3 Hurricane. The last time there was a low pressure system to effect the Northeast, with pressure into the 960's, was the 1993 Superstorm, which deepened down to 961mb. While this system is going to be very strong, it will be nothing like the 1993 Superstorm, as far as the widespread effects go. For areas, especially in Maine, this will likely be a storm to remember for quite some time.

         Anyway, as this system spins up into the 960-970mb range, and cuts off from the jet stream it will slowly retrograde into the gulf of Maine, and slowly weaken as it does so. Never the less, tremendous amounts of moisture will stream across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. While last nights models were indicating that precipitation would be light from Tonight into Monday, they have now started to trend back to slightly heavier amounts of precipitation across our area.

         What to expect across our region, is snow slowly developing overnight tonight, and remaining light to occasionally moderate until Saturday night. Snow accumulations from Tonight through Saturday Night will range from 2-6 inches. Winds should begin to increase into the 10-20MPH range with gusts to 30MPH Saturday afternoon. Winds will continue to increase into Saturday Night.

         For Saturday Night into Monday morning, snow intensities should increase, and snow will be falling moderate to occasionally heavy at times. Winds will increase into the 20-30MPH range with gusts in the 40-45MPH range. This will result in considerable, blowing and drifting snow. Along with temperature falling into the mid teens to lower 20's, for Saturday night into Sunday night, wind chills will range from the single digits above zero to the single digits below zero. Snow accumulation for the Saturday night into Monday morning time frame will range from 8-12 inches. This will result in Total snowfall accumulations for the entire event ranging from 10-18 inches. With localized amounts up to 2 feet along the western slopes of the Green mountains, near areas such as Jay Peak. Snow intensities and winds should begin to weaken Monday morning. I would like to urge, that as the main portion of the event (Saturday Night to Monday Morning) approaches, additional adjustments to snowfall accumulations will be likely.

         With the above information noted, I have issued a Blizzard Watch for the entire region, for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. Due to the potential of significant snowfall accumulations combined with strong winds, and cold wind chills. I have not issued any alerts for the Tonight through Saturday Night time frame, as snow totals are marginal for a Winter Weather Advisory, especially over such an extended period of time. Stay tuned for further updates.

         I also would like to mention that at this time there are no OFFICIAL alerts in effect from the National Weather Service.