Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
A very tough system to forecast, remains just that. Tough. But models appear to be coming back into some type of agreement on the potential for a Blizzard across our area. Luckily, the brunt of the storm will occur after New Years day.
Since I want to emphasize on this storm, I am going to refrain from a meteorological discussion, so this post does not end up too long. So with that in mind, what is expected to happen, is several pieces of energy are going to come together, out over the Atlantic ocean, and as this system rapidly strengthens, it will run into upper atmosphere blocking, which will allow this system to have a very rare track. This system while pushing towards Nova Scotia will, slow considerable, and begin to retrograde (move against the normal flow of the atmosphere) moving west-south west, and down into the Gulf of Maine.
Before this system gets cut off from the jet stream, and being to retrograde, models have this system deepening into a very intense system. Models are showing this system to range from 960-970mb. The pressure equates to that of Cat. 2 - 3 Hurricane. The last time there was a low pressure system to effect the Northeast, with pressure into the 960's, was the 1993 Superstorm, which deepened down to 961mb. While this system is going to be very strong, it will be nothing like the 1993 Superstorm, as far as the widespread effects go. For areas, especially in Maine, this will likely be a storm to remember for quite some time.
Anyway, as this system spins up into the 960-970mb range, and cuts off from the jet stream it will slowly retrograde into the gulf of Maine, and slowly weaken as it does so. Never the less, tremendous amounts of moisture will stream across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. While last nights models were indicating that precipitation would be light from Tonight into Monday, they have now started to trend back to slightly heavier amounts of precipitation across our area.
What to expect across our region, is snow slowly developing overnight tonight, and remaining light to occasionally moderate until Saturday night. Snow accumulations from Tonight through Saturday Night will range from 2-6 inches. Winds should begin to increase into the 10-20MPH range with gusts to 30MPH Saturday afternoon. Winds will continue to increase into Saturday Night.
For Saturday Night into Monday morning, snow intensities should increase, and snow will be falling moderate to occasionally heavy at times. Winds will increase into the 20-30MPH range with gusts in the 40-45MPH range. This will result in considerable, blowing and drifting snow. Along with temperature falling into the mid teens to lower 20's, for Saturday night into Sunday night, wind chills will range from the single digits above zero to the single digits below zero. Snow accumulation for the Saturday night into Monday morning time frame will range from 8-12 inches. This will result in Total snowfall accumulations for the entire event ranging from 10-18 inches. With localized amounts up to 2 feet along the western slopes of the Green mountains, near areas such as Jay Peak. Snow intensities and winds should begin to weaken Monday morning. I would like to urge, that as the main portion of the event (Saturday Night to Monday Morning) approaches, additional adjustments to snowfall accumulations will be likely.
With the above information noted, I have issued a Blizzard Watch for the entire region, for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. Due to the potential of significant snowfall accumulations combined with strong winds, and cold wind chills. I have not issued any alerts for the Tonight through Saturday Night time frame, as snow totals are marginal for a Winter Weather Advisory, especially over such an extended period of time. Stay tuned for further updates.
I also would like to mention that at this time there are no OFFICIAL alerts in effect from the National Weather Service.
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