Soaking Rain This Morning; Snow By Thanksgiving?

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Currently temperatures are fairly mild for a November night across the region, mainly due to the fact of clouds moving in before the sun had set, which has not allowed good radiational cooling. Rain is currently heaviest over northern New York, with heavy rain being reported in Watertown, and Saranac Lake, and moderate rain being reported in Potsdam, and Massena. For the most part the Champlain Valley, and points east are dry right now, with the exception of some showers moving across the extreme Northern Champlain Valley. The Swath of moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue to slowly move east into the Champlain Valley and points east, as the upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes region continues to slowly move to the Northeast.

         Total rainfall accumulations into tomorrow afternoon should range from .25" to .50" in the Champlain Valley with locally higher amounts to near .66" where the pockets of heavier rain exist. For areas east of the Champlain Valley to the New Hampshire border, can expect rainfall totals by tomorrow afternoon ranging from .33" to .75" with isolated amounts to .90". Along the immediate western slopes of the green mountains, some isolated lower rain totals of .10" to .20" could occur due to shadowing/ downsloping off the Green mountains, on a Southeasterly flow.

         Also with the Southeast flow, favored gap locations along the western slopes of the green mountains can also expect some isolated gusty winds, with sustained winds in the 10 to 20MPH range with isolated gusts to around 30MPH. Especially in areas such as Bennington, Cambridge, and Rutland. Infact as of the 1:00AM observations, Bennington was reporting sustained winds of 18MPH with gusts to 30MPH, and Rutland was reporting sustained winds of 14MPH with gusts to 21MPH. Winds for the rest of the area, including the Champlain Valley should remain in the Calm to 10MPH range with gusts up to 15MPH.

         Now time to talk about the pattern change coming up next week, including the possibility of some snow for Thanksgiving night or perhaps the day after.

         A series of small storms will help initiate the beging of the pattern change. The first in the series of systems is starting out across the Texas gulf coast right now, this system will move east, along the gulf coast states and then begin to head Northeast and up the east coast. This will bring some moderate to heavy rainfall to the south, and some moderate rain to the mid-atlantic region come Sunday night. Our region will possibly be effected by this system during the day Monday, with some light rain. Then a clipper system will move southeast out of Canada bringing some colder air with it for Wednesday into Thanksgiving day. It is then when things become more complicated. Some models are showing that thanksgiving night, into Friday night, some energy in the mid section of the country will round the base of the trough in the eastern United States, and a new low pressure system will try to form somewhere along the mid-atlantic coast, and intensify as it moves northeast. There are several major questions to whether or not this provides measurable snow...

1.) Will a coastal low pressure system actually form?
2.) Will enough cold air be in place by then to produce snow?
3.) How strong will the coastal low become, and where will it track?

         At this point unfortunately, these questions cant be answered with any type of certainty. The only question that can be moderately answered is whether or not a coastal low will form. The potential is there, as models have been fairly consistent with some type of low pressure system forming off the mid-Atlantic coast. But the other two questions which are key to whether we get snow or not, will have to await further model runs to be answered. Stay tuned!