Remnants Of Ida Still Being Difficult To Forecast

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Currently light to moderate rain continues from the Champlain Valley east, with some occasional heavy rain along the Western Slopes of the Green mountains up into the Northeast Kingdom. The rain has held together better then originally expected, and depicted by the weather models, and across the entire region, a fairly uniform area of .60" - 1.00" of rain has fallen, with locally higher amounts up to 1.25". Additional rainfall amounts will range from around a tenth inch in the Champlain Valley up to four tenths of an inch along the spine of the Green mountains up into the Northeast Kingdom. Rainfall totals will be in the 0.70" - 1.40" range, with isolated amounts up to 1.75", especially across North Central, and Northeastern Vermont.

         I had forgot to mention in the previous post (because the forecast appeared to be on track) but Ida, has actually been interesting to forecast. The models have not done overly well, right from the beginning of Ida's transition to an Extra-Tropical low pressure system. Models first indicated that Ida would move out to sea, and the heaviest rain never make it further North then the Carolina's. As each model run came in, it continued to edge it further and further north. The models did a decent job on rainfall amounts across the Carolina's and the Mid-Atlantic once the storm was upon them. For our region it appears as of 24 hours ago, that if we received a quarter of an inch here in the Champlain Valley, that would be on the high side, well things have changed significantly since 24 hours ago. Even this morning, the only model that really showed significant rainfall of an inch or more was the 06Z GFS model, which appeared to be an outlier. I guess it just goes to show, that the weather will do as it pleases, and not always can the scientifically rich computer models figure it out.

Below is a list of a few selected rainfall totals as of 7:40PM, from a variety of weather stations, including personal weather stations...

Vermont
Marlboro: 1.61"
Glover: 1.27"
Chester: 1.14"
Newport: 1.13"
St. Albans: 1.06"
Guilford: 1.04"
Swanton Village: 1.01"
Springfield: 0.95"
Montpelier: 0.93"
South Burlington (NWS Office): 0.78"
Rutland: 0.78"
Morrisville: 0.71"
Searsburg: 0.63"
Bennington: 0.37"

New York
Moriah: 1.08"
Ticonderoga: 0.98"
Ellenburg Depot: 0.93"
Plattsburgh: 0.84"