Remnants Of Ida Still Being Difficult To Forecast

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Currently light to moderate rain continues from the Champlain Valley east, with some occasional heavy rain along the Western Slopes of the Green mountains up into the Northeast Kingdom. The rain has held together better then originally expected, and depicted by the weather models, and across the entire region, a fairly uniform area of .60" - 1.00" of rain has fallen, with locally higher amounts up to 1.25". Additional rainfall amounts will range from around a tenth inch in the Champlain Valley up to four tenths of an inch along the spine of the Green mountains up into the Northeast Kingdom. Rainfall totals will be in the 0.70" - 1.40" range, with isolated amounts up to 1.75", especially across North Central, and Northeastern Vermont.

         I had forgot to mention in the previous post (because the forecast appeared to be on track) but Ida, has actually been interesting to forecast. The models have not done overly well, right from the beginning of Ida's transition to an Extra-Tropical low pressure system. Models first indicated that Ida would move out to sea, and the heaviest rain never make it further North then the Carolina's. As each model run came in, it continued to edge it further and further north. The models did a decent job on rainfall amounts across the Carolina's and the Mid-Atlantic once the storm was upon them. For our region it appears as of 24 hours ago, that if we received a quarter of an inch here in the Champlain Valley, that would be on the high side, well things have changed significantly since 24 hours ago. Even this morning, the only model that really showed significant rainfall of an inch or more was the 06Z GFS model, which appeared to be an outlier. I guess it just goes to show, that the weather will do as it pleases, and not always can the scientifically rich computer models figure it out.

Below is a list of a few selected rainfall totals as of 7:40PM, from a variety of weather stations, including personal weather stations...

Vermont
Marlboro: 1.61"
Glover: 1.27"
Chester: 1.14"
Newport: 1.13"
St. Albans: 1.06"
Guilford: 1.04"
Swanton Village: 1.01"
Springfield: 0.95"
Montpelier: 0.93"
South Burlington (NWS Office): 0.78"
Rutland: 0.78"
Morrisville: 0.71"
Searsburg: 0.63"
Bennington: 0.37"

New York
Moriah: 1.08"
Ticonderoga: 0.98"
Ellenburg Depot: 0.93"
Plattsburgh: 0.84"

Remnants Of Ida Effecting The Region Today

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Currently light to moderate rain is falling across the entire region, infact some occasionally heavy rain has been noted in some areas. This rain is from the remnants of former Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in the US as a Tropical Storm. Ida then transitioned from a tropical system to an extra-tropical low pressure system and pounded the mid-Atlantic states, dropping up to a foot of rain, and strong damaging winds to hurricane force, 75MPH. The center of Ida's remnants is actually still well off the southeast coast of the United States, but her moisture continues to move North, and break away from the low pressure center.
         Rain will continue light to moderate at times today, with occasional heavier showers. Intensity of the precipitation should begin to diminish later this evening, and all but end by midnight. Total rainfall accumulations should range from a quarter to half inch in the Champlain Valley, with isolated amounts up to three quarters of an inch, to half to one inch across the Western slopes of the Green mountains and points east. Locally higher amounts could occur across Eastern and Southeastern Vermont. There should be no flooding issues, other then ponding of water on roadways in some of the heavier rain, and poor drainage areas.