Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587 In Effect

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #587 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM (CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS)

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Looks like we will have an interesting afternoon, and evening, as storms develop to the west, and move east into our region.

     Currently radar trends are showing an increase in thunderstorm coverage, especially within the past hour. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has already placed much of the area in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I feel that Franklin, and Grandisle Counties in Vermont, and Clinton County, in New York may not be unstable enough, so on my "Suggested Alerts Map" I have excluded those counties from a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Unfortunately clouds have been thick across those counties due to an earlier area of showers, and thunderstorms. Surface Based CAPE in the extreme Northern Champlain Valley is only in the 300 j/kg to 800 j/kg range. Elsewhere in the Watch area Surface Based CAPE is in the 1000 j/kg to 2000 j/kg range. If we are able to break the clouds a bit across the extreme Northern Champlain Valley and get a good hour of heating, then we may have to issue a Watch to cover those above mentioned counties.

     The primary severe threat across the Watch area, will be Large hail, and strong to damaging winds. The overall greatest threat appears to be over most of Northern New York, down into Central New York, and into the Capital district. Once the sun begins to set, storms should rapidly diminish, ending the Severe Weather threat by around 8PM. Stay tuned for any further updates.

Chance For Severe Storms Thursday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     The pattern of unsettled weather will continue. We were able to pull off a dry day today, but unfortunately that dry weather will end Thursday. I am sure many of you are not surprised since this has occurred much of the Summer so far.

     Tonight, you can expect temperatures to remain steady or slowly rise, along with a chance of showers, and a rumble of thunder or two. The greatest likelihood for showers will be across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont, where the Warm Air Advection, lift, and moisture will be the strongest. Models indicate that up to a quarter inch of rain could fall along the Canadian border of Northern New York, and Northern Vermont overnight. Current radar trends, and estimates indicate that three tenths to eight tenths of an inch of rain with isolated one inch amounts have fallen along the Canadian side of the St. Lawrence River Valley. So its a good bet that widespread quarter inch of rain will fall across Northern New York, and Vermont. Isolated areas along the Canadian border in Northern New York, could see as much as one inch.

     Come tomorrow, it will be a tough forecast as to whether or not severe storms will occur. The Warm front will have moved through, but with the cold front hot on its heels, there may not be enough time for skies to clear, and the sun to destabilize the atmosphere, especially across Northern New York, and Vermont. However the Storm Prediciton Center out of Norman, Oklahoma, has placed portions of our region in a slight risk for severe storms, along and south of an Orange County, Vermont to Addison County, Vermont to an Essex County, New York line. The primary severe threats would be damaging wind, and some large hail. Things will continue to be monitored closely. Stay tuned for any further updates.