Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
Looks like we will have an interesting afternoon, and evening, as storms develop to the west, and move east into our region.
Currently radar trends are showing an increase in thunderstorm coverage, especially within the past hour. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has already placed much of the area in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I feel that Franklin, and Grandisle Counties in Vermont, and Clinton County, in New York may not be unstable enough, so on my "Suggested Alerts Map" I have excluded those counties from a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Unfortunately clouds have been thick across those counties due to an earlier area of showers, and thunderstorms. Surface Based CAPE in the extreme Northern Champlain Valley is only in the 300 j/kg to 800 j/kg range. Elsewhere in the Watch area Surface Based CAPE is in the 1000 j/kg to 2000 j/kg range. If we are able to break the clouds a bit across the extreme Northern Champlain Valley and get a good hour of heating, then we may have to issue a Watch to cover those above mentioned counties.
The primary severe threat across the Watch area, will be Large hail, and strong to damaging winds. The overall greatest threat appears to be over most of Northern New York, down into Central New York, and into the Capital district. Once the sun begins to set, storms should rapidly diminish, ending the Severe Weather threat by around 8PM. Stay tuned for any further updates.
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