Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
Finally, just hours before the onset of precipitation, models come into somewhat better agreement. The GFS now keeps precipitation further Southeast, although it still brings snow into Central Vermont. One good thing about this, is the fact the snow that the GFS does bring into central Vermont, is showing it to be much lighter, and not likely to accumulate several inches. Infact, the thermal profile of the GFS is slightly warmer then previous runs. So as of now, there will be no alerts issued, and you can expect a rain/ snow mix tonight across Southern, and Central Vermont changing to all snow, even in the deeper valley's by very early Sunday morning, then changing back to a rain snow mix, and eventually to all rain by Sunday afternoon. Total snow accumulations will range from a Dusting to 2 inches in the deeper valley's to 1-3 inches in the higher elevations and 3-6 inches at summit levels. The heaviest snow will be confined to the summit levels, across Southeastern Vermont. Impacts should be minimal therefor no alerts are needed. I will keep a close eye as the storm continues to develop but at this time, it does appear much of the region will not be seeing any accumulating snow. Nevertheless stay tuned.
Showing posts with label October. Show all posts
Showing posts with label October. Show all posts
October 17, 2009
UPDATE: Saturday-Sunday Storm
Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
Its now officially Saturday (12:33AM), and even being this close to a potential storm system, the weather models continue to strongly disagree. The Operational GFS continues to be a Northwestern outlier, and the NAM, and Euro continue to hold the precipitation much further to the Southeast. The difficult problem with this is, the fact the GFS has proven to be quite accurate with the placement of the precipitation of the last storm, and the GFS has been very consistent with showing this scenario. But on the other hand the NAM, and Euro have also been consistent with there solution. Even with the majority of models leaning into the favor of the NAM, and Euro, the GFS just cant be ignored yet. Unfortunately this looks like it is going to be a "wait and see" type storm. Where the precipitation ends up is primarily in the hands of the trough placement, and low pressure center placement, and strength.
Right now on water vapor imagery, you can see the trough is really starting to dig south, and steepen. Already there is an area of increased pressure falls across Southeastern New Jersey, and adjacent coastal waters. It will be interesting to see exactly where the low forms, its strength, and eventual track will be. Right now the potential still exists for around a dusting to 1 inch of snow in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and several inches of snow for the higher elevations of Vermont, especially those across Central, Southern, and Eastern Vermont. That's if the GFS model verifies. I have not issued any "Suggested alerts". I will await another couple model runs before I make my decision, check back tomorrow afternoon for another update. Once again, I want to urge that if the GFS model is to verify, the POTENTIAL exists for several inches of heavy wet snow across portions of the region. Stay tuned for further updates.
Its now officially Saturday (12:33AM), and even being this close to a potential storm system, the weather models continue to strongly disagree. The Operational GFS continues to be a Northwestern outlier, and the NAM, and Euro continue to hold the precipitation much further to the Southeast. The difficult problem with this is, the fact the GFS has proven to be quite accurate with the placement of the precipitation of the last storm, and the GFS has been very consistent with showing this scenario. But on the other hand the NAM, and Euro have also been consistent with there solution. Even with the majority of models leaning into the favor of the NAM, and Euro, the GFS just cant be ignored yet. Unfortunately this looks like it is going to be a "wait and see" type storm. Where the precipitation ends up is primarily in the hands of the trough placement, and low pressure center placement, and strength.
Right now on water vapor imagery, you can see the trough is really starting to dig south, and steepen. Already there is an area of increased pressure falls across Southeastern New Jersey, and adjacent coastal waters. It will be interesting to see exactly where the low forms, its strength, and eventual track will be. Right now the potential still exists for around a dusting to 1 inch of snow in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and several inches of snow for the higher elevations of Vermont, especially those across Central, Southern, and Eastern Vermont. That's if the GFS model verifies. I have not issued any "Suggested alerts". I will await another couple model runs before I make my decision, check back tomorrow afternoon for another update. Once again, I want to urge that if the GFS model is to verify, the POTENTIAL exists for several inches of heavy wet snow across portions of the region. Stay tuned for further updates.
October 16, 2009
Cold Temperatures To Continue; Snow Possible Saturday Into Sunday
Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
Things will get warmer, but not before another couple cold days, and some snow! Currently a Nor'easter that formed off the Delmarva Peninsula, earlier today is moving east-northeast, and away from the region. Snow continues though across Pennsylvania, Northwestern New Jersey, and the Southern tier of New York, and even into the hills to the west, and east of the Capital district of New York. Infact Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of the above mentioned regions. The heaviest snow is expected to occur over the higher elevations of Central/ North Central Pennsylvania, where up to 10 inches of snow could fall, by Saturday. Being October, this snow had an extremely high water content, and this heavy wet snow falling on foliaged trees, is resulting in limbs snapping. This is only with 1-4 inches of snow being reported so far, across Central Pennsylvania. If the heavier amounts of snow up to 10 or more inches occur, that could be locally devastating in that area, with significant tree damage, and power outages.
Right now the northern edge of the snow has shifted slightly further north then expected, with light snow, snow/rain, and rain being reported along a ling from Niagara Falls, NY, to Geneva, NY, to near Bennington, VT. This is more inline with the GFS model, which has been called a Northern outlier for this, and the next storm. This is very interesting for the upcoming forecast which I will be talking about in a couple minutes. First lets talk temperatures.
Right now across the Champlain Valley temperatures are in the mid to upper 20's. Temperatures have actually been rising over the past couple of hours, as winds slightly increase, and cloud cover moves in. Most locations in the Champlain Valley have hit lows in the mid 20's, prior to the temps rising. Currently its 29F degrees in Swanton Village, 28F degrees in Burlington, VT, 25F degrees in Berkshire, and Morrisville, VT, and 28F Degrees in Plattsbugh, NY.
Now onto the talk about snow for Saturday. Right now, also of interest is the fact, precipitation is slightly more intense, and lasting longer then initially predicted across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. This area of precipitation should start to weaken in intensity, and should all but come to an end for these areas, by this afternoon. As an additional piece of energy starts to carve a trough, and form a new low pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, precipitation will redevelop across the Mid-Atlantic states, Southern New York and Southern New England, by late Friday night or Early Saturday morning. This is when things become tricky, as models do not agree on a solution yet. The NAM has consistently keeping the precipitation of this next developing storm system across Southern New England, and the Mid-Atlantic States back into Central Pennsylvania. While the GFS as of 3 model runs ago shifted its precipitation further north from Central Pennsylvania, north and east into central, and eastern New York, and across Vermont, and New Hampshire. Once again the GFS model has been considered a northern outlier, but as of right now, that northern outlier is accurate. Will it be accurate for the next storm though is the big question, and the big dilemma. The Euro model keeps it south of our area like the NAM does, and the Canadian model is pretty much a mix between the NAM/ EURO, and the GFS. The Canadian model brings the precipitation into Central Pennsylvania, into Southeastern New York, into Central, Vermont, and New Hampshire. This will likely be a good model to use for now, but its hard to avoid the fact the GFS has been accurate so far, showing what the other models refuse to show. If the GFS solution were to come true, as its been showing over the past 3 model runs, then this would mean some snow for our area. With up to 1 inch in the Champlain Valley and 2-5 inches in the higher elevations, especially across Central, and Eastern Vermont. Across summit levels up to 8 or 9 inches of snow could fall if the GFS solution were true. Right now there are no official alerts issued for our area from the National Weather Service in Burlington, and they are not talking about issuing any either. But if the potential becomes imminent that 4 inches or more of this heavy wet snow will fall in the higher elevations, then I may issued a Winter Storm Watch on my "Suggested Alerts Map". Generally a Winter Storm Watch is issued for the potential of 6 inches or more of snow within 12 hours or 9 or more inches of snow within 24 hours. But due to the fact this could be a very heavy wet snow, I am using the Advisory Criteria level snow, of 4 inches to issue a Watch, and potential Warning. Once again this is ONLY if the GFS model begins to verify on this next storm for Saturday into Sunday. Right now, just stay tuned for the POTENTIAL of a few inches of heavy wet snow in the higher elevations.
Things will get warmer, but not before another couple cold days, and some snow! Currently a Nor'easter that formed off the Delmarva Peninsula, earlier today is moving east-northeast, and away from the region. Snow continues though across Pennsylvania, Northwestern New Jersey, and the Southern tier of New York, and even into the hills to the west, and east of the Capital district of New York. Infact Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of the above mentioned regions. The heaviest snow is expected to occur over the higher elevations of Central/ North Central Pennsylvania, where up to 10 inches of snow could fall, by Saturday. Being October, this snow had an extremely high water content, and this heavy wet snow falling on foliaged trees, is resulting in limbs snapping. This is only with 1-4 inches of snow being reported so far, across Central Pennsylvania. If the heavier amounts of snow up to 10 or more inches occur, that could be locally devastating in that area, with significant tree damage, and power outages.
Right now the northern edge of the snow has shifted slightly further north then expected, with light snow, snow/rain, and rain being reported along a ling from Niagara Falls, NY, to Geneva, NY, to near Bennington, VT. This is more inline with the GFS model, which has been called a Northern outlier for this, and the next storm. This is very interesting for the upcoming forecast which I will be talking about in a couple minutes. First lets talk temperatures.
Right now across the Champlain Valley temperatures are in the mid to upper 20's. Temperatures have actually been rising over the past couple of hours, as winds slightly increase, and cloud cover moves in. Most locations in the Champlain Valley have hit lows in the mid 20's, prior to the temps rising. Currently its 29F degrees in Swanton Village, 28F degrees in Burlington, VT, 25F degrees in Berkshire, and Morrisville, VT, and 28F Degrees in Plattsbugh, NY.
Now onto the talk about snow for Saturday. Right now, also of interest is the fact, precipitation is slightly more intense, and lasting longer then initially predicted across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. This area of precipitation should start to weaken in intensity, and should all but come to an end for these areas, by this afternoon. As an additional piece of energy starts to carve a trough, and form a new low pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, precipitation will redevelop across the Mid-Atlantic states, Southern New York and Southern New England, by late Friday night or Early Saturday morning. This is when things become tricky, as models do not agree on a solution yet. The NAM has consistently keeping the precipitation of this next developing storm system across Southern New England, and the Mid-Atlantic States back into Central Pennsylvania. While the GFS as of 3 model runs ago shifted its precipitation further north from Central Pennsylvania, north and east into central, and eastern New York, and across Vermont, and New Hampshire. Once again the GFS model has been considered a northern outlier, but as of right now, that northern outlier is accurate. Will it be accurate for the next storm though is the big question, and the big dilemma. The Euro model keeps it south of our area like the NAM does, and the Canadian model is pretty much a mix between the NAM/ EURO, and the GFS. The Canadian model brings the precipitation into Central Pennsylvania, into Southeastern New York, into Central, Vermont, and New Hampshire. This will likely be a good model to use for now, but its hard to avoid the fact the GFS has been accurate so far, showing what the other models refuse to show. If the GFS solution were to come true, as its been showing over the past 3 model runs, then this would mean some snow for our area. With up to 1 inch in the Champlain Valley and 2-5 inches in the higher elevations, especially across Central, and Eastern Vermont. Across summit levels up to 8 or 9 inches of snow could fall if the GFS solution were true. Right now there are no official alerts issued for our area from the National Weather Service in Burlington, and they are not talking about issuing any either. But if the potential becomes imminent that 4 inches or more of this heavy wet snow will fall in the higher elevations, then I may issued a Winter Storm Watch on my "Suggested Alerts Map". Generally a Winter Storm Watch is issued for the potential of 6 inches or more of snow within 12 hours or 9 or more inches of snow within 24 hours. But due to the fact this could be a very heavy wet snow, I am using the Advisory Criteria level snow, of 4 inches to issue a Watch, and potential Warning. Once again this is ONLY if the GFS model begins to verify on this next storm for Saturday into Sunday. Right now, just stay tuned for the POTENTIAL of a few inches of heavy wet snow in the higher elevations.
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