UPDATE: Saturday-Sunday Storm

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     Its now officially Saturday (12:33AM), and even being this close to a potential storm system, the weather models continue to strongly disagree. The Operational GFS continues to be a Northwestern outlier, and the NAM, and Euro continue to hold the precipitation much further to the Southeast. The difficult problem with this is, the fact the GFS has proven to be quite accurate with the placement of the precipitation of the last storm, and the GFS has been very consistent with showing this scenario. But on the other hand the NAM, and Euro have also been consistent with there solution. Even with the majority of models leaning into the favor of the NAM, and Euro, the GFS just cant be ignored yet. Unfortunately this looks like it is going to be a "wait and see" type storm. Where the precipitation ends up is primarily in the hands of the trough placement, and low pressure center placement, and strength.

     Right now on water vapor imagery, you can see the trough is really starting to dig south, and steepen. Already there is an area of increased pressure falls across Southeastern New Jersey, and adjacent coastal waters. It will be interesting to see exactly where the low forms, its strength, and eventual track will be. Right now the potential still exists for around a dusting to 1 inch of snow in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and several inches of snow for the higher elevations of Vermont, especially those across Central, Southern, and Eastern Vermont. That's if the GFS model verifies. I have not issued any "Suggested alerts". I will await another couple model runs before I make my decision, check back tomorrow afternoon for another update. Once again, I want to urge that if the GFS model is to verify, the POTENTIAL exists for several inches of heavy wet snow across portions of the region. Stay tuned for further updates.