Low Confidence Forecast/ Winter Weather Advisories Posted

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Western slopes of the Northern and Central Green Mountains, and the Northeast Kingdom, for 3-6 inches of snow. The Advisory is in effect from 3PM Today to 11AM Thursday mroning.

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NWS Butlington, VT:
         -No alerts are in effect from the National Weather Service at this time.

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Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:

OVERVIEW
         A stalled out/ very slow moving ocean storm will continue to drift out over the open waters of the Atlantic ocean. This will throw back areas of snow into Thursday afternoon. Models do not converge on a clear solution, so this forecast is very low confidence.

SNOWFALL
         Right up to showtime, and models have yet to agree, which will be right, the lower res GFS, CMC, Euro, and NOGAPS, or will the higher res model, NAM, and its counterpart the 4km ultra hires model NMM-ARW be correct. More models have little snow, but the hires models show significant snow. Due to the fact the hires models can pick up on finer details, could they be seeing something the other cant? This is all what make the forecast so difficult. Anyway, I have changed the Watch to an Advisory for 3-6 inches for the Western slopes of the Northern and Central Green mountains and points east. I am sticking with the higher res models, but toning them tone a bit. The hires models show 5-10+ inches of snow for the Advisory area, but I don't think that much will fall, mainly due to the fact temps have risen into the mid to upper 20's, so snowfall ratios wont be as high. Also I feel too much moisture is being depicted by these models, but then again I feel too little is being depicted by the GFS, and other Global models. At this point take the forecasted snow amounts with caution, as if the Global models verify, then less snow will occur, and if the hires models verify, significantly more snow is possible. Once again due to the disagreement among models, I have low confidence in this forecast. Stay tuned for further updates!