Major East Coast Storm To Impact The Region

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
         Models continue to come into agreement, with a low pressure system forming off the Delmarva peninsula, and rapidly intensifying as it moves Northeast towards Southern/ Southeastern New England. There are still some minor discrepancies among models that could make a big difference in the outcome of the system, however at this point, most of the reliable models are in agreement.

         The biggest impact from this storm will be widespread precipitation, with 1-2 inches of rain area wide, with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches, by Saturday. There is the potential for some flooding problems due to the fact the ground is still fairly saturated from the heavy rains we had in late September. For the most part, if flooding occurs, it should be minor. At this point the issuance of a Flood Watch is marginal, further models runs and forecasted precipitation amounts will be the guide as to whether a Flood Watch will be needed. Aside from the widespread rain, there is a chance for rain to mix with and change over to snow in the higher elevations, especially across the Northern Adirondacks. If snow is to fall, it will be primarily seen above 2500 feet. Although with how dynamic this storm has the potential to be, it wouldn't be surprising to see snow mix in down to 1000 feet or possibly a bit lower, but accumulations will be no existent below 2500 feet. At present indications snow accumulations of up to 3 inches could occur above 2500 feet a Trace to 1 inch around 2500 feet, and up to 3 inches at the highest summits of 4000+ feet. The snow potential will be from Friday evening into Saturday morning.

         The next impact is the strong wind potential. Models are indicating 850mb winds of 50-70 knots, and 925mb winds of 40-55 knots on the back side of the system. Mixing the winds down from 925mb to the surface may be a challenge as the rain and cool temperatures will have keep a stable surface layer, however with 925 winds that strong it is somewhat concerning. Of additional concern is the fact this winds are going to be Northerly, which raises potential wind flags for the Champlain Valley. Commonly southerly wind events funnel through the valley and produce strong winds, the same can occur with a North wind. At this point I will forecast winds in the 15-30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH, which will likely require a Wind Advisory, however the potential does exist for much stronger winds, with gusts up to 60MPH to occur, if this potential become more likely then a High Wind Watch may be needed. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.