Windy Night On Tap Friday Into Saturday

Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
     As we get closer to Halloween, things are looking more internesting for some strong winds for Friday Night into Saturday Afternoon across the Champlain Valley.
     A strengthening storm system currently over eastern Kansas will continue to move north, and strengthen, once this low pressure system gets close to the US/ Canadian border it will then begin moving Northeast, and continue to deepen into a 960mb - 970mb low. A strong high pressure system off the Atlantic coast wont move a lot, and will cause the pressure gradient to tighten across our area Friday into Saturday, as the low pressure system strengthens. This will result in a strong southerly flow. As many of you weather enthusiasts in the Champlain Valley know, Southerly wind events tend to be slightly stronger then model soundings show, due to the fact the wind funnels up the Champlain Valley due to the mountains to the west, and east of the Valley. The most significant winds occur in the Northern Champlain Valley, on the Vermont side the strongest winds tend to run from Burlington, to Milton, to St. Albans, to Swanton, and to Highgate, and west to Lake Champlain. On the New York side of the Champlain Valley the strongest winds tend to occur from Keeseville, to Peru, to Morrisonville, to West Chazy, to Champlain, and points east to Lake Champlain.
     With that said, there is still a few details to iron out. Such as its going to be night time when the stronger winds move in. The problem with this is, the sun sets, and the atmosphere stabilizes some, causing the winds to have a hard time reaching the surface if a strong temperature inversion is in place. However, with that in mind, Southerly wind events not only funnel through the valley, but can quite often break through any temperature inversions due to the warmer waters of lake Champlain allowing the wind to mix down to the surface. If precipitation moves in with the warm front, and approaching cold front, then winds may not mix down as well as currently expected, due to the fact the cold rain helps stabilize the surface. Right now I don't feel that enough rain is going to move in to cause a significant stable layer at the surface, and I feel with the overnight warmer temperatures in the lower to mid 50's, I feel the winds will be able to mix down to the surface.
     At this time I am forecasting the potential for sustained winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts locally up to 55-60MPH. Winds will increase all day tomorrow, and become strongest late Friday night into early Saturday afternoon. Winds should then diminish below Advisory, or Warning Criteria. Right now I have issued a High Wind Watch for the Champlain Valley for the potential of damaging gusts of 55-60MPH. There is currently no official alerts from the National Weather Service office out of Burlington, they are talking about issuing a Wind Advisory tomorrow. The reason why I have issued a High Wind Watch is because the dynamical set up looks to be similar to the March 11th, 2009 windstorm, that was expected to be a Wind Advisory event, but suddenly became what should have been a High Wind Warning event when gusts reached 55-60MPH and tore the roof off a Business in the town of Swanton, and downed numerous trees, and limbs across the extreme Northern Champlain Valley, and caused sporadic fallen trees, and limbs across the rest of Western Vermont, and much of Northern New York. Stay tuned for further updates!