As of the 11PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center out of Miami, FL. Tropical Storm Earl remains a strong tropical storm. Winds sustained at 65MPH, with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is down to 989mb. Pretty much everything remains the same as the 8PM intermediate advisory. One thing I find interesting is that satellite imagery shows significant development in convection, and organization, including what may be an eye attempting to develop. Its tough to say whether or not its just a small pocket of weaker convection or if its the attempt of an eye forming. I find it interesting that this area that appears to be an eye, is just slightly north of the expected center. I wouldn't be surprised if this really is an eye forming. Hurricane hunters have found flight level winds of at least 75MPH but surface winds apparently are only at 65MPH. It does take time however even if convection fires up, for the winds to increase. The other thing that surprises me is the fact it clearly has organized better, but the minimum central pressure has not deepened. Either way I would strongly expect Earl to be a category 1 hurricane by tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be shocked if it happens to rapidly intensify and be a strong category 1 hurricane by the time the 5AM advisory comes out. I could be wrong, but its sure seems to be organizing rapidly.
The next thing to worry about is the track of the system, currently models indicate that it will track somewhere between Bermuda, and the coast of North Carolina by next Friday. The track of the system has continued to move west since Earl formed as a depression. So the east coast of the United States needs to watch the development of Earl closely. Model guidance indicated this storm to reach Major Hurricane status (Cat 3 - Sustained Winds of atleast 115MPH) by Tuesday. At this time I am very concerned for ares from North Carolina, to New Jersey. But even areas such as New England are not out of the potential danger zone just yet. Even if the storm doesn't make landfall along the US east coast, it may be close enough to the coast to still feel significant impacts. Are you prepared for a hurricane?
Please stay tuned for further updates on Tropical Storm Earl.
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